With the approach of the American elections, the Betfair, one of the largest betting houses in the world, there has been a significant increase in the volume of bets on your Betfair Exchange platform regarding the outcome of this crucial political event. So far, the markets related to the American elections on Betfair have already moved over R$500 million in global bets. Among Brazilian bettors, approximately R$3 million has been wagered so far
"While traditional opinion polls try to predict the results based on voters' intention to vote", the numbers from Betfair bring a different perspective: who the bettors believe will win (and not who they would like to win) to the point of betting their own money, explained Rosiane Siqueira, public relations manager and spokesperson for Betfair
"With a very high accuracy record", our bettors have correctly predicted 22 of the 24 major elections around the world since 2020, including Lula's election in Brazil in 2022. The last American presidential elections broke records: over R$7 billion wagered worldwide on Betfair. This year's race doesn't seem to be different. With so many twists and turns, has everything to be yet another huge event in the history of the platform, commented the spokesperson
The 2024 American Elections
Officially, the presidential race started only this year, but in 2023 the contest was already taking shape between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, before the resignation of the current American president. Between July and November 2023, the odds of Trump returning to the presidency have fallen from 3.75 for 2.37, indicating an increase in your chances to 58%. Already Biden, who was the favorite at the time of the market opening, saw your chances diminish, with the odds varying from 2.37 for 3.25 (42%). With that, Trump ended 2023 as the favorite to return to the White House
In December 2023, Trump was declared ineligible by the Supreme Court of Colorado. Even so, your favoritism increased to 2.25, while Biden appeared with 3.25. It was only in April 2024 that the odds began to tighten, causing a balance in the bets: 2.1 (52%) for Trump and 2.2 (48%) for Biden
The recent episode that occurred in Pennsylvania, when Trump was shot in the ear, left the candidate with his best number in the race for the election: odds of 1.44, what is equivalent to a 69% chance of winning. Biden, at this moment, rose by 2.62 for 7.0, 31% chance
Trump Against Kamala
A series of changes and twists in the campaign began on July 21, when Joe Biden withdrew from the candidacy, and Kamala Harris, your vice president, took the position of favorite candidate of the Democrats. From January to July, Kamala left 51.0 (2%) to 2.2 (48%), improving even your position compared to Biden's after the negative fallout from the American president in the debate
By the end of August 2024, the Betfair odds between Trump and Kamala are closer than ever: the two candidates are currently in a technical tie, according to the platform's numbers. Both the Republican and the Democrat appear with odds of 1.91, suggesting that we will have a tight presidential race, as seen in 2020
Watch the full video released on the Betfair Channel on YouTube, analyzing all the numbers and main events of the electoral race between Republicans and Democrats on the Betfair Exchange platform
With the approach of the elections, it is expected that the odds will continue to vary with each event and statement made in the campaigns. The future debates, the release of new economic data and the developments of legal issues will be crucial in shaping the electoral landscape that will take place on November 5
Betfair will continue to monitor the odds. The Betfair Watch will provide regular data updates for bettors and those interested in following the dynamics of the United States presidential elections.GPT-4o
