The American betting platform Polymarket opened a speculative market questioningWhether Supreme Federal Court (STF) Minister Alexandre de Moraes will be impeached in 2025.
Last week, the platform's traders bet on18% chance of the minister being removed by the Brazilian Senateuntil the end of this year, with a five percentage point increase compared to the previous week
The fluctuation is a direct reflection of the arrest warrant issued by Moraes against former President Jair Bolsonaro, which generated new reactions opposing the White House of Donald Trump.
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The rise of impeachment betting
The peak of bets favoring the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes occurred on July 10, 2025, when tensions between Brazil and the United States reached a new level. On the date, American President Donald Trump announced a tariff of50% on Brazilian products, justifying the measure as a direct response to the decisions of the Supreme Federal Court against former President Jair Bolsonaro, many of which were signed by Moraes.
At that moment, the market reacted with a rise in bets that the Brazilian Senate would yield to international pressure and initiate an impeachment process against the minister, causing the "yes" contract to reach more than 25 cents, the highest value recorded so far.
Since then, however, interest in this hypothesis has waned, and the value of the bet has decreased, reflecting a decline in confidence that the United States will be able to influence the Brazilian Congress.
