Mexico's e-commerce market is the second largest in Latin America, behind Brazil, and is expected to grow at an average rate of 25% per year (higher than Brazil's 21%) until 2027, reaching $184.2 billion. The forecast is from“Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets”, produced by Nuvei, a Canadian fintech specializing in payment solutions.
The Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets analyzes e-commerce in eight high-growth markets mapped by Nuvei: Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Hong Kong, Chile, India, Colombia, and the United Arab Emirates. After presenting the results of Brazil and South Africa in February, the report now highlights Mexico and Hong Kong.
Mexico
The growth of e-commerce in Mexico is expected to be led by greater integration with other countries: cross-border e-commerce is expected to increase from 21% in 2024 to 26% by 2027, at a faster rate than observed in Brazil or the average of the surveyed countries.
Another driver of Mexican e-commerce growth will be the advancement of electronic payment methods. The 6% of cash purchases recorded by the Nuvei study reflect a market still lacking financial inclusion. Despite initiatives like the Interbank Electronic Payment System (SPEI-CoDi) and Dinero Móvil (DiMo), Mexico is behind Brazil in this regard. In early May, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad was received by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. The two agreed on cooperation projects, including the transfer of real-time payment technology.
"The e-commerce market in Mexico is booming and modernizing, and this has attracted major Brazilian companies," says Daniel Moretto, senior vice president of Nuvei Latin America. "The GDP per capita is 30% higher than ours, and we are several steps ahead in financial inclusion."
Hong Kong
Hong Kong stands out among the countries surveyed byGlobal Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets, for having the highest percentage of international e-commerce: 56%, with a forecast to reach 59% in 2027. Mexico and Brazil, despite showing greater growth potential for the coming years, start from a lower penetration: 21% and 8%, respectively.
The dominance of cross-border e-commerce, observed in the Nuvei study, does not happen by chance: Hong Kong is a small market (with 7.8 million inhabitants, much less than Mexico's 137 million or Brazil's 216 million) and is neighboring China, the world's largest exporter. With 92% of its GDP in the service sector, Hong Kong is dependent on foreign trade. That's why it is always at the top of the lists of the most open economies on the planet.
With the 24th highest GDP per capita in the world (Mexico is 96th and Brazil is 104th), Hong Kong allows multinational groups from Brazil and around the world to access a consumer willing to pay for quality and diversity. It is also an open window to the future of our retail. There, the internet reaches 95.6% of the population and the mobile phone subscription rate per inhabitant is the highest in the world: 292 for every 100 people.
"Hong Kong is a strategic market as an entry point for companies looking to expand in the region," says Moretto, senior vice president of Nuvei Latin America. Additionally, it has a diverse and high-income population, a large consumer of international premium brands.
