American website features bets on impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes

The American betting platform Polymarket has opened a speculative market questioning whether Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes will be impeached in 2025.

In the last week, traders on the platform bet on an 18% chance of the justice being removed by the Brazilian Senate by the end of this year, marking a five percentage point increase from the previous week.

This fluctuation is a direct reflection of the house arrest order issued by Moraes against former President Jair Bolsonaro, which triggered renewed opposition from Donald Trump's White House.

Read the full article at: https://apostalegal.com/noticias/site-americano-abre-apostas-sobre-impeachment-de-alexandre-de-moraes

The peak of impeachment bets

The peak in bets favoring Alexandre de Moraes' impeachment occurred on July 10, 2025, when tensions between Brazil and the United States reached a new level. On that date, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, justifying the measure as a direct response to the Supreme Federal Court's decisions against former President Jair Bolsonaro, many of which were signed by Moraes.

At that time, the market reacted with a surge in bets that the Brazilian Senate would yield to international pressure and initiate impeachment proceedings against the justice, causing the "yes" contract to reach over 25 cents, its highest value to date.

Since then, however, interest in this scenario has waned, and the bet value has declined, reflecting reduced confidence that the United States will succeed in influencing the Brazilian Congress.