After a January marked by the traditional seasonality of slowdown in retail, February brought the scenario of consistent recovery, with significant growth in visitor flow and revenue compared to the same period last year. Retail Performance Index (RPI) data, released by HiPartners, reveal generalized recovery, with a focus on street shops, specific sectors and heterogeneous regional performance, however positive.
The visitation flow showed significant growth, especially in street shops, that recorded an increase of 18% in the annual comparison, while shopping mall stores saw a more moderate increase, of 3%.
No revenue, the national growth was 8%, driven by widespread increases across all regions. The North stood out with a growth of 11,15% on revenue, followed by the Midwest, which recorded an increase of 9,87%, overcoming challenges in the visitation flow, that fell 24,80% in the same region. The South, in turn, led the growth in customer flow (+28,70%), although with more modest performance in revenue (+6,45%).
| Average Ticket (%) | |
| Physical Stores in General | 8,4 |
| Physical Storeslocated on the Street | 8,0 |
| Physical Storeslocated in Shopping | 10,2 |
| Physical Stores by Region (%) | |
| Midwest | 9,6 |
| Northeast | 10,4 |
| North | 7,6 |
| South | 7,5 |
| Southeast | 8,0 |
The overall average ticket increased by 8,4%, with regional variations and by type of establishment. Shopping stores had a 10 increase,2%, while the street ones advanced 8,0%. Regionally, the Northeast led in average ticket (+10,4%), followed by the Midwest (+9,6%). The North (+7,6%) and the South (+7,5% showed smaller increases, however aligned with the national average.
Sectorially, all segments experienced revenue growth, with an emphasis on Fabrics, Clothing and Footwear, with an increase of 16,20%, and Furniture and Appliances (+10,97%). The category of Pharmaceutical Articles, Doctors, Orthopedic, Perfume and Cosmetics grew 7%, indicating stable demand, although less dynamic. The numbers reinforce the diversification of the recovery, with sectors sensitive to credit and discretionary consumption gaining strength.
Contrast with January and macroeconomic context
In January, Restricted Retail (which excludes vehicles and construction materials) grew 3,1% year-on-year comparison, while the Expanded Retail grew 2,2%. Despite that, seasonal adjustments revealed moderate declines in Restricted Retail, reflection of challenges such as food inflation, that impacted supermarkets (-3,4% on the monthly margin. The pharmaceutical sector, that had grown 9,6% in December, slowed down to 6,2% in January, indicating normalization after previous peaks.
The increase of the import tax to 20% on purchases up to US$ 50, in force from August 2024 under the Remittance Compliance program, also continues to influence retail. Data from the Federal Revenue shows a decrease of 45,9% on the customs value of international shipments between July and August 2024, with limited recovery in the following months. The shift has directed consumers towards domestic retailers, strengthening the domestic market.
HiPartners highlights that the results from February confirm the resilience of Brazilian retail.
"The performance of retail reflects a scenario of adjustments and consolidation". The growth of Restricted and Expanded Retail in the year-on-year comparison shows resilience, but seasonal declines indicate that challenges such as food inflation continue to pressure essential categories, like supermarkets. The slowdown in the pharmaceutical sector also suggests a normalization after a period of strong growth. On the other hand, the increase in import tax has reshaped consumption dynamics. The significant drop in international remittances and the reorientation of demand towards national retailers signal a strategic opportunity for the sector. Brands that know how to take advantage of this movement with assortment adjustments, operational efficiency and digital integration will have a competitive advantage in a more protected market scenario, but still challenging, explain Eduardo Terra, partner at HiPartners
The IPV consolidates itself as a thermometer to understand the dynamics of retail, offer strategic insights and anticipate trends. With the resumption of growth in February, the expectations for the coming months are optimistic, since factors like inflation, credit and fiscal policies remain stable. HiPartners reinforces its commitment to monitoring these indicators, assisting companies to navigate a complex landscape, but full of opportunities.
