The second term of Donald Trump began on 20 January and, with just over a month in duration, already promotes a profound reconfiguration of the United States' economic policies. The president's new guidelines on international trade relations have impacted global investments, increasing volatility in stock markets around the world. The so-called "Trump effect" is redefining how markets react to regulatory changes and new strategies implemented by the US government
This reconfiguration is not limited only to international trade or macroeconomic policies. The crypto ecosystem is one of the most impacted sectors, undergoing a significant transformation. The approach of the previous administration, marked by restrictions and caution regarding digital assets, is being replaced by a vision that prioritizes technological innovation and financial freedom. This shift in stance not only reflects the growing influence of the crypto sector on the global economy, but also signals alignment with the fundamental principles of decentralisation and privacy for the crypto community
Bitcoin an alternative to the traditional system
In recent weeks, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, in addition to applying a 10% surcharge on imported items from China and 25% for all steel and aluminium imports destined for the USA. These protectionist measures have created a landscape of uncertainty in global markets, impacting especially the assets considered risky. The rise in commercial costs tends to pressure inflation and discourage investments, creating a challenging environment
Bitcoin has been standing out as a reliable asset amidst this volatility. While the stock markets around the world are experiencing significant losses, Bitcoin has remained virtually stable, reaffirming its role as a store of value in times of economic instability. This resilience demonstrates the growing maturity of the digital asset and its ability to attract investors seeking protection against the uncertainties of the traditional market, affirms Luiz Parreira, CEO da Bipa
In the face of this scenario of drastic changes in economic and regulatory policies, the new Trump administration has been adopting a more favourable stance towards innovation in the crypto sector. The recent executive orders signed by the president reflect a clear effort to reshape current regulation and stimulate the growth of the digital asset market in the United States. This crypto shift marks the beginning of a new phase for the sector, que agora conta com um ambiente mais favorável ao desenvolvimento de tecnologias financeiras descentralizadas e à participação de grandes investidores institucionais
Executive orders and regulatory reform
The second term of Donald Trump brought a profound reconfiguration in the regulatory policy of the United States regarding the crypto ecosystem. This transformation marks a break from the restrictive approach of the Biden administration, establishing a new paradigm that prioritizes innovation and financial freedom in the sector
Two executive orders affecting the cryptocurrency and Bitcoin sector signed by Trump in January and representing the first concrete steps of this change. The first of them revoked Executive Order 14067 of the Biden administration, which imposed restrictions on the crypto sector and promoted the development of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). In your place, a policy pro-crypto has been established, explicitly prohibiting the creation of CBDCs and establishing a "Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets". Furthermore, Trump ordered all federal agencies to review their regulations on crypto assets within a period of 30 to 60 days. This order also protects the right to self-custody and Bitcoin mining
The second executive order focused on revoking SAB 121, eliminating the requirement for banks and financial institutions to include custodial cryptoassets in their balance sheets. This measure removes one of the main barriers to the entry of traditional financial institutions into the crypto market, allowing a greater supply of custody services and products related to digital assets
Prohibition of CBDCs
The decision by Trump to explicitly ban the development of CBDCs marks a drastic break from the previous administration. The new executive order not only prohibits government agencies from promoting or issuing CBDCs, but also determines the immediate termination of any project related to these state digital currencies
This measure was widely celebrated by the crypto community, que vê as CBDCs como um instrumento de vigilância estatal e controlo governamental sobre transações financeiras individuais. The prohibition reflects a political view that values financial privacy, the sovereignty of the dollar and decentralization, principles aligned with the philosophy of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general
ETFs drive the market
The Bitcoin ETFs launched last year exceeded market expectations. O IBIT da BlackRock e o FBTC da Fidelity alcançaram um volume combinado de 4,5 billion dollars on the first trading day. In just 11 months, IBIT accumulated an impressive 50 billion dollars in assets, breaking records and highlighting the growing demand for regulated products in the Bitcoin ecosystem
In the Brazilian market of exchange-traded index funds, Diez de los ETFs con mayor rendimiento para el inversor en 2024, seven are related to crypto assets and blockchain networks, secondliftingfrom Quantum Finance
ETFs play a crucial role in popularising the crypto market by simplifying access to these assets. They eliminate the complexity of cryptocurrency custody, allowing exposure to appreciation without concerns about safety and storage, making investment more accessible and attractive. Os ETFs são um passo inicial interessante, but it is always worth remembering that they do not provide access to a fundamental feature of Bitcoin: the individual's ability to hold their own custody. It is through self-custody that individuals can guarantee their financial sovereignty.”, affirms Caio Leta, Head of research at Bipa
The "Bitcoinisation" of the Financial System
The growth of Bitcoin ETFs does not merely represent a co-option by the traditional financial system, but also a "Bitcoinisation" of this system. Products such as ETFs denominated in BTC, ETFs of companies that adopted the "Bitcoin standard" and debt securities aimed at Bitcoin purchase are examples of this integration
The market is adapting to the logic and principles of Bitcoin, transforming your traditional dynamics. This is only the initial phase of a change that could redefine the foundations of the global financial market
