As small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more pessimistic about the Brazilian economy at the beginning of this year, releases the fourth edition of the 'Omie Small Business Survey', carried out by Omie, cloud management platform (ERP). Currently Brazil has more than 10 million active micro and small enterprises, being about 65% opting for the Simplified National. This segment plays a significant role in the Brazilian economy, both in terms of GDP generation, how many job vacancies are there in the labor market
The data indicate an increase in pessimism among small businesses regarding the short-term outlook of the Brazilian economy, considering the rise in interest rates and the increase in inflationary pressures in the country. Meanwhile, the majority of respondents remain optimistic about revenue growth and hiring in their own businesses over the next six months – cerca de 84% esperam avanço na faturação dos seus negócios no período. This result, possibly, reflects a still favorable outlook for the evolution of domestic consumption, an essential component for the performance of various activities in the small business sector
For Felipe Beraldi, economist and Manager of Indicators and Economic Studies at Omie, the positive result is surprising given the challenging macroeconomic scenario and signs of slowdown in the SME market, as indicated by IODE-PMEs in recent months. However, some factors can support the optimistic view of small entrepreneurs in various sectors, como a continuidade do crescimento da renda real do trabalho e o forte desempenho do Comércio nos últimos meses
Even with optimism for the coming months in their own businesses, small businesses no longer feel the same about the Brazilian economic environment. The constant increase in interest rates by the Central Bank and the rise in inflation reinforce the perception of a significant slowdown in GDP in 2025. As a reflection of this scenario, 51% of entrepreneurs foresee a worsening in the economy in the short term – increase compared to the 39% recorded in the September survey. On the other hand, only 21% of respondents expect an improvement in the coming months.
Figure 1Evolution of owners and managers of small businesses' perception of the domestic economic environmentRegarding the Brazilian economy, what is your expectation for the next six months
Source: Omie Small Business Survey
Regarding the labor market, the survey brings positive expectations from small businesses. The study reveals that 43% of respondents expect to open new vacancies in the coming months, percentual acima dos 37% observados na sondagem de setembro/24. Furthermore, 29% showed willingness to seek people in the market if there is a need to replace the current team and 28% do not expect to make short-term hires – reduction compared to the 36% of the previous survey
Além de recolher as expectativas, the survey also aims to understand the current situation of small businesses. Regarding the billing, 52% reported growth in recent months, although there is a significant balance with those who indicated stagnation or contraction (48%). This movement is in line with the recent data from IODE-PMEs, which recorded a modest 3% growth year on year in the cumulative over the last six months until February 2025. The latest readings of the index, from December 2024, indicate a cooling of the market, especially in the Services and Industry sectors, which reinforces the high number of responses in the most pessimistic field, de estagnação ou retração do faturamento, explain Beraldi
Like last year, the costs and expenses of small businesses increased, according to 80% of the participants. The consistency of the responses between the last two editions aligns with the current economic scenario, marked by pressured inflation and rising expectations
This context, allied to a heated job market and a new real increase in the minimum wage this year, the costs with labour are high for small business owners. In March 2025, O IGP-M acumulou um aumento de 8,6% in the last 12 months, compared to the 4 drop,3% registered in the same period of 2024
Despite the challenges related to cost pressure, small businesses continue hiring, even if in a more restrained way and focusing on personnel replacement. While 54% of companies have recently made hires, only half of this number corresponds to the creation of new jobs. There is also a gradual increase in the proportion of companies that are not hiring, passando de 40% no primeiro semestre de 2024 para 46% nesta edição, what may signal a scenario of greater caution and strategic adjustments in the sector
Business owners' pains
The last question of the survey was aimed at understanding the main pain points of small business owners in the market. According to them, são: ‘high interest rates’ (which increased from 41% of respondents last year to 45% in 2025), followed by 'high labour costs' (which also increased from 41% to 45%) and 'high competitiveness in the segment' (42%)
Figure 2Which market elements most hinder the company's growth
Source: Omie Small Business Survey. (The results in this topic reflect the percentage of choice for each answer option, considering the total number of respondent companies in the survey. Thus, the sum of response percentages can be greater than 100%, considering that each respondent could choose up to three answer options.)
Beraldi explains that this result reinforces the domestic economic situation, marred by the increases in the Selic by the Central Bank and by a still resilient labor market (with incomes in reais on the rise).
Finally, the theme 'lack of working capital' gains relevance, with an increase of 30% to 36% in this edition of the study, while the 'weak market demand' decreased from 30% to 26%. This loss of relevance of the 'weak demand' theme reinforces the perspective of revenue growth by owners and managers of small businesses in the country, but the increasing relevance of the mention of 'lack of working capital' confirms that historically high interest rates and banks' selectivity in granting credit to small businesses impact the final cost of credit for these agents, afirma o economista.
The Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey (QCCS), published by the Central Bank in February 2025, revealed that the expectations of financial institutions indicate an additional worsening in credit supply conditions across all segments
The fourth edition of the 'Omie Small Business Survey' was conducted with over 460 respondents from the Simple Nacional, especialmente tomadores de decisão (como CEOs, directors, partners and managers, to anticipate market trends, besides identifying the main pain points of small business owners in the country. O período de coleta das respostas foi de 11/02 a 17/03 de 2025
