In August, theSerasa Experian Commerce Activity Indicatorregistered a drop of 0,9%, the worst of the year so far. The economist from Serasa Experian, Luiz Rabi, comment that, even with a slight deflation in recent months, the economic uncertainties and the appreciation of the dollar against the real create a climate of caution, causing consumers and businesses to suspend large expenditures. See, in the graph below, the monthly variation of the last 12 months
Rabi adds that, "all this scenario contributes to consumers adopting a more cautious stance regarding spending", making the sector's reaction more difficult.”
In August, still according to the monthly variation, the indicator was divided between an increase in the "Fuels and Lubricants" sectors 0,9%) and "Construction Material" (1,6%) and a drop in the other four, being most pronounced in "Supermarkets", Hypermarkets and Food and Beverages,7%). Check the complete data in the graph below
Annual variation
In the view of the annual variation, there was growth of 2,2%, despite a positive number, it was the weakest of the year. All segments of the Brazilian physical retail, with emphasis on "Fuels and Lubricants" (9,1%), also recorded growth. See, next, the annual variation of the indicator with a history of the last 12 months and the survey by sector
Methodology
The Serasa Experian Indicator of Trade Activity is constructed, exclusively, by the volume of monthly inquiries made by about 6.000 commercial establishments to the Serasa Experian database. The consultations are statistically processed by the trimmed mean method, with a 20% cut on the upper and lower extremes of the monthly growth rates, related to each commercial establishment within each of the six retail segments surveyed. For the formation of the aggregated series of the Serasa Experian Indicator of Trade Activity, the growth rates resulting from each retail segment are weighted by the relative weight of each of them in the Monthly Retail Survey – Expanded Retail, of IBGE, respecting your methodological revisions
Serasa Experian
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