The consecutive increase in the Selic rate, that is now at 13,25% per year – with a projection of reaching 15% according to the Central Bank's Focus Report – reveals a curious phenomenon: it represents both a challenge and an opportunity for retail. Це тому що, with the increase in the basic interest rate, it is natural for credit to become more expensive and, therefore, more restricted to just a part of the population; simultaneously, this situation gives retail the opportunity to get ahead by being the one to offer good credit limit options to those not covered by traditional lines. After all, regardless of the interest rates, of inflation or the rise of the dollar, people will continue to need their needs met, whether they are the most basic or not
Some factors support this prominence of retail: according to Febraban, the estimated growth in credit stock for this year is expected to be lower than in 2024, staying around 9%. Furthermore, The Consumer Confidence Index reached its lowest number since February 2023, reaching 86,2 points, according to FGV IBRE. And, in an economic scenario like the one we are experiencing now, that I exemplified above, it is common for items that are not essential, like clothes and shoes, stay in the background and the priority of spending should be on food, medicines and fuel, for example
So, if the consumer goes to a clothing store, he may need a line of credit that does not affect the limit of the credit card he has with the bank to buy a part, for this amount of the limit is reserved for the purchase of essential items, as mentioned earlier. In this scenario, there is a need to provide a new credit, whether for the customer to buy clothing items or even a TV or refrigerator, that are also necessary according to each context
Naturally, this client will use the credit line offered by retailers that have this resource. In this way, a very important bond of trust is created between the consumer and retail, strengthened by a relationship previously developed through the offering of other retail services, how Private Label cards and CDC. In this context, the window of opportunities is quite large, because retail becomes one of the main channels for granting credit to the end consumer, given that financial institutions do not have consumer goods for sale or a counter for customer relations, characteristics of retail
Retail may even face the challenge of dealing with consumer default, but still he needs to keep his sales growing. So, he prefers to take that risk and make the sale to the customer, increasing the purchase ticket, than losing the opportunity. At the same time, the retailer knows that it should not make mistakes when selecting customers eligible for a line of credit or not, therefore it should rely on good CRM tools, of credit management and collection to take care of the entire customer lifecycle, evaluating what type of consumption he makes; what value, on average, he usually spends; what is the profile of that consumer etc – this information will help the retailer both in approval and in increasing the limit so that these customers can make purchases in their stores. And this is one of the great opportunities in the face of the challenge that the sector will have in 2025
Furthermore, retail has a very important differential when compared to financial institutions: in situations of default, the settlement policies are much friendlier, since the sector is concerned with delighting the customer and bringing them back to the store to buy more, because you don't want to lose him. The relationship between the consumer and banks, many times, it is just economic. This exchange is part of the DNA of retail, because even in adverse situations, customer loyalty is necessary. Amid this opportunity, retail needs to be very effective, quick, intelligent and cautious
Um modelo de pagamento bastante eficiente que o varejista pode oferecer como alternativa ao cartão de crédito é o CDC Digital/BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later, that can be very well used for the acquisition of durable goods, as it works like the old booklet. There is a limit on how many times the customer can purchase repeatedly as they wish, but at the same time it allows for the approval of a credit limit per purchase, specifically
Today, how the payment methods are simplified, this is a product that comes in handy, since it has undergone a digital transformation: transactions are tokenized and through facial biometrics, being able to pay the installments with an online boleto within the app or Pix etc. These credit modalities, that I mentioned earlier, more than tools for access to credit, function as important products capable of promoting assertive campaigns and ensuring the offer of products specifically targeted to the profile of each customer
Furthermore, they are quite strategic instruments to activate customers who are already in the retailer's base, but they have not made purchases, that is to say, are inactive. So, it is necessary to reactivate the base of old users and consumers with targeted offers, based on new experiences and a frictionless journey for the customer at all stages, from his activation to the payment of the invoices
Another trend that, based on my expertise, what will stand out this year is tokenization, including offline token payment, outside the logged-in environment of the application. With the necessary security authentications, I realize that this type of transaction will also be responsible for reducing friction at the time of purchase in retail. I also highlight the consolidation of Pix, that reached 63,51 billion transactions in 2024, according to BACEN, but it is an important payment schedule for the retailer and the end customer, because it brings advantages for both sides
For retail, the money enters the account immediately and does not get stuck in financial institutions or credit intermediaries. For the end customer, who needs credit to buy again, it is possible to have the benefits of the store card, discount on products, but make the payment of the invoice by Pix, either in the app or at the establishment's kiosk, and thus have the limit restored in a fraction of a second. For both sides, the journey is facilitated. In this way, I realize that retail is taking the lead in the credit granting scenario and in customer relationships. Thus, he is responsible for leading the digital transformations occurring in the payment methods sector, customer journey and experience
