The first half of 2024 has come to an end, and now we are officially in the second half of the year. It is natural that some plans have come to fruition, while others may not have turned out as expected. But, when the subject is the economic situation of Brazil, what can we expect for the next six months
According to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the new projections position Brazil as the 8th largest global economy in 2024. This advance results from a forecasted growth of 2,2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reflecting a stable expansion rhythm. Such growth is driven by the trade sectors, services and agriculture, in addition to the increase in investments and household consumption, favoured by the reduction of the Selic rate and by the drop in the unemployment rate
However, despite the recent drops in the Selic rate, the current level of basic interest rates in the country is still a barrier for those considering taking risks, to undertake or start a business activity. After all, just leaving the money idle, inflation (IPCA) and more 6,4% per year. The entrepreneurial activity really needs to have a very attractive profitability for the investor to decide to take the risk. It is urgent that interest rates continue to fall in a healthy manner, without pulling it forcibly
And for interest rates to continue to fall, it is necessary for all economic agents to have confidence in the monetary authority, and that inflation expectations are, in the jargon of specialists, "anchored". This means that these must converge to a certain oscillation band, without major surprises, what calms tempers and fosters the creation of an environment where more people feel confident to invest here in the long term, given that your investments will not be eroded by inflation
We must pay close attention to the current economic situation and consider how we will be affected as citizens. Many economic issues may seem irrelevant to our daily lives, but when analyzing them more closely, we perceive your inevitable impacts. An example of this is the trade balance, that this year shows more imports and fewer exports, in comparison with the previous year
Another fact that highlights this concern is the prices of food, that had retreated in 2023, but they will have to suffer from inflation again. This happens due to adverse climatic events in the country and around the world, especially with the tragedy of the rains that struck Rio Grande do Sul. The Focus Bulletin highlights an increase in the price of these products at a rate higher than that of general inflation, that should end the year around 3,96%
Furthermore, we also have the issue involving the increase of the dollar, that directly affects our internal inflation rates and ends up being, again, reflected in people's daily lives. With the increase of the dollar, we may feel impacts on the prices of imported products, in the production costs of companies and also in inflation expectations. And those who plan to travel abroad or do exchanges outside the country, faces another challenge, what is the devaluation of the real
In summary, there are many variables to take into account. Therefore, if you do not have a well-structured financial plan adapted to your reality, it is much more likely that you will get lost in this vastness of news and events, that become mere noise in longer time windows. Therefore, create your planning (or review what you already have), thinking about the need to invest, always looking at the long term
What to expect economically in the second half of 2024
