10 Trends for brands on Black Friday 2025, according to experts

With a projection of R$ 7.1 billion in online sales, Black Friday 2025 promises to accelerate a new phase in Brazilian digital retail.Powered by artificial intelligence, changes in tracking and a more demanding consumer, brands will need to go beyond discounts to stand out and find in affiliate marketing one of the main performance levers.

Part of this turn is through affiliate marketing and the increasingly strategic role of content creators in purchasing decisions. According to EY-Parthenon, 54% of Brazilians follow digital influencers (above the global average of 45%) and 61% say that their choices are shaped by these recommendations. During Black Friday, this behavior intensifies: a survey of MField with Opinion Box shows that 59% of consumers if campaigns with influencers in previous editions, and 56% already remember this type of purchase after being impacted by this type of action.

“Content creators bring a sense of urgency, exclusivity and, above all, credibility. They help translate the offer into real benefit for the” consumer, says Rodrigo Genoveze, regional director of Awin for Latin America. “Inflecting this influence with the affiliate model, we achieve more efficient campaigns, with greater conversion and less media waste”.

With an eye on this new landscape, Awin, one of the largest global affiliate marketing platforms, has listed 10 trends that should shape the performance of brands and advertisers on Black Friday 2025. “We are experiencing a profound change in the way consumers discover, compare and decide to buy. Brands that combine influence, intelligent tracking and value content will be better prepared to win the contest for attention and” conversion, he says.

Among the 10 highlights for Black Friday 2025, Awin points out that:

• 1. AI redefines the top of the funnel: less traffic, more conversion & DO With the increasing use of artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and others, part of the offer searches should migrate to AI environments, reducing overall top-of-the-funnel traffic.However, this tends to raise conversion rates once users arrive with clear purchase intent.
   
• 2. Google Shopping: CSS turns trump against giants ¡ ̄ CSS (Comparison Shopping Services) customers can gain visibility when giants like Amazon reduce or pause ads on Google Shopping.This move makes css partners important for retailers looking to maintain impressions and lower the cost of acquisition.
   
• 3. Traceability gains strength with Awin IPC 0 Awin's Conversion Protection Initiative (IPC) has brought advances in tracking: more than 1 million sales recovered, US$ 100 million assigned in revenue, and US$ 8.5 million redirected in affiliate commissions.
   
• 4. Apps reveal the true impact of social networks – Brands that have transactional apps that have adopted app tracking have noticed significant jumps in sales metrics, such as an increase of 26% in influencer revenue in specific campaigns. This practice helps reveal the contribution of creators who promote products via social networks.
   
• 5. Economic pressure requires smarter promotions With international tariffs rising, supply chains affected and inflation pushing costs, less aggressive promotions are expected to prevail. Brands will need to adjust discounts and maintain margins, making affiliate strategy even more relevant to amplifying return on investment.

• 6. Tech partners take leading role in e-commerce 2 Conversion optimization tools, cart recovery and CSS partners showed solid performance in 2023-2024 and should be even more relevant this Black Friday.
   
• 7. Third-party content becomes a competitive differentiator ( Investing in quality sponsored content, such as AI-based reviews, guides, and recommendations, elevates engagement and credibility, with noticeable results in traffic and conversions.
   
• 8. Cost and conversion tools enter the radar 0 Features such as flexible commissioning and cart abandonment intelligence become essential to protect margins and maintain performance in a scenario of economic uncertainty.
   
• 9. The journey to purchase is longer – Shaken consumer confidence slows the purchase decision.Brands need to review attribution windows and recognize every step of the funnel to optimize results.
   
• 10. Small brands shine with creativity and influencers ¡ ̄ SMBs increased their influencer usage via Awin Access by 45%.With segmented CPA and subnet models, small businesses can compete with big players during Black Friday.