What are the prospects for the supermarket retail market in 2025?

With the beginning of a new year, the expectation for various sectors of the economy grows, especially the supermarket sector, which is faced with the analysis of market scenarios in all spheres involving the segment.

From a legal point of view, it is no different, since supermarket retail will need to navigate a changing environment, in which technological innovation and sustainability will be at the center of regulatory changes, strategic preparation will be the key to turning challenges into opportunities.

The Tax Reform

The Tax Reform is expected to advance in 2025, with the objective of unifying taxes, such as ICMS, ISS, PIS and Cofins in a dual VAT model. For the lawyer and retail specialist, Daniela Correa, the supermarket sector will have a positive impact: “ simplification of ancillary obligations will bring greater tax predictability.However, the transition to this new regime represents an operational challenge”, explains Daniela.

Retail supermarket companies will need to invest in tax management systems to ensure compliance with ancillary obligations and avoid tax liabilities.“This will make for greater financial predictability, facilitating long-term planning”, says the lawyer.

Taxation of digital operations

The increase in online sales in the supermarket sector demands greater attention in relation to the taxation of digital transactions. According to Daniela, the ICMS supervision on e-commerce should be intensified and with the reform and the consequent unification of taxes IO“for this, tax planning will be essential”, he points out.

Daniela also explains that to meet this challenge, supermarkets will need to adopt digital compliance and automated systems for issuing invoices, including to deal with the harmonization of state legislation that can generate greater tax complexity.

Taxation on consumption and social impact

Regarding taxation on consumption, Daniela warns: “a possible exemption of essential products can stimulate consumption and relieve the tax burden on items of the basic basket. For retail, the impact consists of being prepared for rapid adjustments in pricing and margin control. Tax relief can improve consumers' perception of the sector, therefore, it is an opportunity for supermarket retail”.

Sustainability and Green Taxation

“This is a real and global trend”, warns Daniela. “With the growing pressure for sustainable business practices, green taxation gains ground.New tax incentives can benefit companies that adopt ESG (environmental, social and governance) practices, such as reducing waste and using renewable energy”, adds the expert.

“O retail supermarket can be encouraged to invest in eco-efficient infrastructure and with global pressure for sustainable measures, there will be the possibility of sanctions or additional taxation for companies that do not meet the sustainability goals”, he concludes.

Labor relations and new forms of hiring

With the advancement of technologies and changes in consumer behavior, such as the growth of delivery, for example, the sector will need to adapt its labor relations.

More flexible hiring, especially on platforms gig economy, can be regulated and there will be a need for contract review and adaptation to emerging labor standards.

Data Protection Regulations (LGPD)

With the intensification of the supervision by the ANPD (National Data Protection Authority), compliance with the LGPD (General Data Protection Law) will be even more critical. Supermarkets operating with large volumes of sensitive data will need to strengthen their privacy policies.

“If this does not occur, the impact will be great, given the financial and reputational penalties for companies that do not comply with the” legislation, warns Daniela.

Consumer relations

Daniela also explains that the supermarket sector undergoes significant transformations in consumer relations, driven by technology and changes in consumer habits. One of the main innovations is the adoption of e-commerce, allowing online shopping and home delivery or pick-up in store. This not only extends accessibility, but also offers personalized experiences through recommendations based on previous purchases.

Another innovation is the implementation of mobile technologies, such as loyalty applications and digital payments, which facilitate interaction between consumers and supermarkets. In addition, artificial intelligence is used to optimize inventories, predict demand and improve the supply chain.“These innovations improve efficiency, reduce costs and provide a more convenient and personalized shopping experience”, explains Daniela.

Sustainability is also a growing focus, with supermarkets adopting eco-friendly practices such as biodegradable packaging, waste reduction and organic promotion.In addition, nutritional transparency and the provision of healthy options are increasingly valued.

Thus, investment in compliance in consumer relations, added to systems that ensure security in consumer relations is essential for the segment to monitor the behavioral change of its consumer audience and industry trends.

For 2025, Daniela projects some expectations: “ the year 2025 promises significant transformations for supermarket retail, with direct impact on the legal areas involved. Companies in the sector must invest in compliance, technology and adaptation to new regulatory models to remain competitive in a constantly evolving market”.