Retail reports growth of 8% in revenue in February, points out IPV of HiPartners

After a month of January marked by the traditional seasonality of retail slowdown, February brought the scenario of consistent resumption, with significant growth in visitation flow and revenue compared to the same period of the previous year. Retail Performance Index (PPI) data, released by HiPartners, reveal a generalized recovery, especially for street stores, specific sectors and heterogeneous regional performance, but positive. 

The flow of visitors showed significant growth, especially in street stores, which registered a high of 18% in the annual comparison, while shopping stores had a more moderate increase of 3%.  

In the revenue, the national advance was 8%, driven by widespread increases in all regions. The North stood out with growth of 11,15% in revenue, followed by the Midwest, which recorded a high of 9,87%, overcoming challenges in the visitation flow, which fell 24,80% in the same region. The South, in turn, led the growth in customer flow (+28,70%), although with more modest performance in revenue (+6,45%). 

The overall average ticket rose 8.4%, with regional variations and by type of establishment. Shopping stores increased by 10.2%, while street stores advanced by 8.0%. Regionally, the Northeast led the average ticket (+10.4%), followed by the Midwest (+9.6%). The North (+7.6%) and the South (+7.5%) showed smaller increases, but aligned with the national average. 

Sectorally, all segments had growth in revenue, with emphasis on Fabrics, Clothing and Footwear, with a high of 16.20%, and Furniture and Appliances (+10.97%). The category of Pharmaceutical, Medical, Orthopedic, Perfumery and Cosmetics articles grew 7%, indicating stable demand, although less dynamic. The numbers reinforce the diversification of the recovery, with sectors sensitive to credit and discretionary consumption gaining strength. 

Contrast with January and macroeconomic context 

In January, Restricted Retail (which excludes vehicles and building materials) grew 3.1% year-on-year, while Extended Retail advanced 2.2%. Despite this, seasonal adjustments revealed moderate declines in Restricted Retail, reflecting challenges such as food inflation, which impacted supermarkets (-3.4% on the monthly margin). The pharmaceutical sector, which had grown 9.6% in December, slowed to 6.2% in January, indicating normalization after previous peaks. 

The increase in import tax to 20% on purchases up to US$ 50, effective since August 2024 under the Conforma Shipping program, also continues to influence retail.Income data show a drop of 45.9% in the customs value of international shipments between July and August 2024, with limited recovery in the following months. 

HiPartners points out that the results of February confirm the resilience of Brazilian retail.  

“Retrict and Expanded Retail growth in the annual comparison shows resilience, but seasonal declines indicate that challenges such as food inflation continue to put pressure on essential categories such as supermarkets. The slowdown in the pharmaceutical sector also suggests a normalization after a period of strong growth.On the other hand, the rise in import tax has redesigned consumption dynamics. The significant drop in international shipments and the reorientation of demand for national retailers signal a strategic opportunity for the sector. Brands that know how to take advantage of this movement with assortment adjustments, operational efficiency and digital integration will have an advantage in a more competitive market scenario, but still protected, among the company, such as Eduardo Hiramart. 

The IPV consolidates itself as a thermometer to understand retail dynamics, offer strategic insights and anticipate trends. With the resumption of growth in February, expectations for the coming months are optimistic, provided that factors such as inflation, credit and fiscal policies remain stable.HiPartners reinforces its commitment to monitor these indicators, helping companies navigate a complex scenario, but full of opportunities.