The “Declaration of Economic Independence”, announced by President Donald Trump in April, marked a new phase in global protectionism escalation. By imposing a base tariff of 10% on all American imports — with surcharges reaching 44% for countries like China and Taiwan — the US profoundly altered global technological supply chains. In the center of this geoeconomic reshuffle, Brazil faces a paradox: unprecedented challenges, but also strategic opportunities.
Although the country has only been subjected to the minimum tariff of 10%, the consequences are not trivial. Brazilian technology importers face immediate increases in the costs of acquiring equipment from the US, in addition to suffering indirect effects — as many products include components from severely tariffed countries. The Brazilian tax structure exacerbates this scenario, creating a cascading effect that could increase the final cost of certain technological devices by over 70%.
Sectors like hardware, IT infrastructure, and cloud services feel differentiated pressures. While multinational corporations deal with squeezed margins or price increases, national manufacturers gain relative competitiveness and opportunities to provide more affordable solutions in the face of global uncertainty.
Rise in Cyber Attacks
But the risks are not only economic, as the commercial instability environment favors the growth of digital threats, according to NSFOCUS, a global reference in cybersecurity. The relationship between economic sanctions and increased hacker activity is well-documented — and is already beginning to manifest.
Organizations operating critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, energy and transportation networks, are forced to replace suppliers and redesign their technological ecosystems quickly. This transition, made under pressure, opens gaps for cyberattacks. The cost of adaptation may come not only in figures but in vulnerabilities exploited by cybercriminals.
Paths for Brazil
In this new global scenario, the Brazilian technological sector needs to act quickly and intelligently. Some key measures include:
- Review Supply Chains: Identify critical dependencies of suppliers located in highly tariffed countries.
- Encourage Selective Nationalization: Seek local or regional alternatives for strategic components.
- Enhance Cybersecurity: Invest in robust digital protection practices, especially in essential sectors.
- Monitor diplomatic and tariff scenarios: Adjust strategic decisions based on the evolution of international negotiations.
- Reassess stocks and pricing policies: Minimize immediate impacts and avoid supply disruptions.
Between risk and opportunity, Brazil can emerge more competitive in some areas, especially in American markets that previously heavily relied on China. However, this will require overcoming logistical, fiscal, and technological obstacles, amid historical windows open for those who want to act strategically.
