What are the prospects for the supermarket retail market in 2025?

With the beginning of a new year, the expectation also grows in various sectors of the economy, especially in the supermarket sector, which is faced with the analysis of market scenarios in all spheres that involve the segment.

From a legal perspective, it is no different, as the supermarket retail will need to navigate through a transforming environment, where technological innovation and sustainability will be at the center of regulatory changes, strategic preparation will be the key to turning challenges into opportunities.

Tax Reform

The Tax Reform is expected to advance in 2025, aiming to unify taxes such as ICMS, ISS, PIS, and Cofins into a dual VAT model. According to lawyer and retail specialist Daniela Correa, the supermarket sector will have a positive impact: “the simplification of ancillary obligations will bring greater tax predictability. However, the transition to this new regime represents an operational challenge,” explains Daniela.

Supermarket retail companies will need to invest in tax management systems to ensure compliance with ancillary obligations and avoid tax liabilities. “This will provide greater financial predictability, facilitating long-term planning,” says the lawyer.

Taxation of Digital Operations

The increase in online sales in the supermarket sector demands more attention regarding the taxation of digital transactions. According to Daniela, ICMS enforcement on e-commerce must be heightened and with the reform and the consequent unification of taxes – “for this, tax planning will be essential,” she emphasizes.

Daniela still explains that to face this challenge, supermarkets will need to adopt digital compliance and automated systems for issuing invoices, including dealing with the harmonization of state laws that can create greater tax complexity.

Taxation on consumption and social impact

Regarding consumption taxation, Daniela warns: ‘Possible exemption of essential products could promote consumption and alleviate the tax burden on basic basket items. For the retail sector, the impact is being prepared for rapid adjustments in pricing and margin control. Tax relief can enhance consumers’ perception of the sector, therefore, it is an opportunity for the supermarket retail.’

Sustainability and Green Taxation

‘This is a real and global trend,’ Daniela warns. ‘With the growing pressure for sustainable business practices, green taxation gains space. New tax incentives can benefit companies that adopt ESG practices (environmental, social, and governance), such as waste reduction and use of renewable energy,’ adds the expert.

‘Supermarket retail can be encouraged to invest in eco-efficient infrastructure, and with global pressure for sustainable measures, there will be the possibility of sanctions or additional taxation for companies that do not meet sustainability goals,’ she concludes.

Labor relations and new forms of hiring

With the advancement of technologies and changes in consumer behavior, such as the growth of delivery, for example, the sector will need to adapt its labor relations.

More flexible hiring, especially on gig economy platforms, may be regulated, requiring contract review and alignment with emerging labor standards.

Regulations on Data Protection (LGPD)

With increased monitoring by the ANPD (National Data Protection Authority), compliance with LGPD (General Data Protection Law) will become even more critical. Supermarkets dealing with large volumes of sensitive data will need to strengthen their privacy policies.

“Failure to do so will have a significant impact, given the financial and reputational penalties for companies that do not comply with the legislation,” Daniela warns.

Consumer Relationships

Daniela further explains that the supermarket sector is undergoing significant transformations in consumer relationships, driven by technology and changes in consumer habits. One of the major innovations is the adoption of e-commerce, allowing online shopping with home delivery or store pick-up. This not only enhances accessibility but also offers personalized experiences through recommendations based on previous purchases.

Another innovation is the implementation of mobile technologies, such as loyalty apps and digital payments, that facilitate interaction between consumers and supermarkets. Furthermore, artificial intelligence is used to optimize stocks, predict demand, and enhance the supply chain. “These innovations improve efficiency, reduce costs, and provide a more convenient and personalized shopping experience,” Daniela explains.

Sustainability is also a growing focus, with supermarkets adopting eco-friendly practices such as biodegradable packaging, waste reduction, and promotion of organic products. Additionally, nutritional transparency and offering healthy options are increasingly valued. These innovations not only enhance the consumer experience but also contribute to a more sustainable future.

Thus, investing in compliance in consumer relations, combined with systems that ensure safety in consumerist relations, is essential for the sector to keep up with the behavioral change of its consumer audience and industry trends.

For 2025, Daniela envisions some expectations: ‘The year 2025 promises significant transformations for the supermarket retail sector, with a direct impact on the involved legal areas. Companies in the sector should invest in compliance, technology, and adaptation to new regulatory models to remain competitive in an ever-evolving market,’ she concludes.