“O retail sales result showed an acceleration of 0.5% in September, falling below the expectation of 1.1%. Despite the improvement over the previous data of -0.2%, the pace is still considered weak, especially when we analyze the annual performance, which slowed to 2.1%, falling short of the projection of 3.6%. This frustration in expectations is a result of a challenging economic environment, with high interest rates and more restricted credit, which limits household consumption.For the sector, the gradual recovery indicates that retail still faces a more difficult growth rate, affecting the whole economy as robust growth levels Volnei Eyng, CEO of Multiplike.
“The growth of 0.5% in Brazilian retail sales in September 2024, as reported by IBGE, reflects a resilience of the sector in the face of persistent economic challenges.This advance, although modest, indicates that factors such as the gradual reduction of inflation and the maintenance of employment levels have sustained household consumption.However, the continuous increase in indebtedness and still high interest rates may limit a more robust recovery.For the economy as a whole, this performance suggests a gradual recovery, but points to the need for policies that encourage sustainable consumption and the reduction of household indebtedness, according to the company Joao Kepler, CEO of Equity Fund Group.
“The growth of 0.5% in retail sales was below market expectations, which projected a more aggressive increase for the period. Several factors contributed to this growth: reduction of the Selic Rate: Central Bank reduced the basic interest rate of 13.75% per year to 11.25% in the last seven months, facilitating access to credit and stimulating consumption; promotions and discounts: the proximity of Black Friday and other promotional campaigns encouraged consumers to anticipate their purchases, boosting retail sales; improvement in the labor market: the reduction of unemployment and the increase of the available retail sector, reflecting the growth of the economic growth of the sector. Alex Andrade, CEO of Swiss Capital Invest.
“In September 2024, Brazilian retail sales registered an increase of 0.5% compared to the previous month, according to data released by IBGE. This result was below market expectations, which projected a more robust growth for the period. The high was mainly driven by the positive performance of the hyper and supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco sectors. Despite the advance, the modest result indicates that the retail sector still faces challenges, possibly related to factors such as persistent inflation and credit restrictions, which may be limiting the purchasing power of consumers.For the economy as a whole, this performance suggests a gradual recovery of the retail, but still below the consumer's consumption, it is expected. Felipe Vasconcellos, Partner at Equus Capital.7
“This growth below expectations reflects that, despite data revealing unemployment below, GDP above 3% and a supposed heated economy, at the last tip, in consumption, this is not reflected in practice. Trade and industry need to understand that, to grow, today, it is necessary to innovate and create new sources of revenue. This is the formula that worked for us in 2024”, and Roberto Jalonetsky, CEO of Speedo Multisport.
“0.5% growth in retail sales reflects a slight improvement in the sector, but still falls short of expectations for a more solid recovery. Although the data was positive compared to the previous month, the expansion is still modest, especially when compared to last year's performance. The slowdown in the annual growth rate, which fell to 2.1%, points to the persistence of structural challenges, such as high inflation and rising interest rates, which continue to impact the purchasing power of households”, the Carlos Braga Monteiro, CEO of Studio Group.
“Retail sales rose 0.5% in September, a growth below market expectations, which projected an increase of 1.1%. Although a recovery occurred after the fall of 0.2% in August, performance still reflects a concentrated consumption of priority items such as food and medicines.This moderate growth indicates that inflation and high interest rates continue to impact the purchasing power of consumers, limiting the advance in more discretionary sectors such as furniture and household appliances, which recorded falls.For the economy, the result reflects an essential pace of recovery in the sector, with the need for economic stimulus to further consumption, to further affect the need for more restrictive policies to the consumption, to the sector. Sidney Lima, CNPI Analyst at Ouro Preto Investimentos.
“The increase in retail sales in September reflects a slow recovery, below expectations, highlighting economic challenges such as high interest rates and inflation, which still limit the purchasing power of households.For the retail sector as a whole, the scenario points to a slower recovery, but with potential acceleration if effective measures to stimulate consumption are adopted”jefferson Laatus, chief strategist of the Laatus group.
