“Retail sales accelerated by 0.5% in September, below the expectation of 1.1%. Despite the improvement compared to the previous figure of -0.2%, the pace is still considered weak, especially when we analyze the annual performance, which slowed to 2.1%, falling short of the projection of 3.6%. This disappointment in expectations is the result of a challenging economic environment, with high interest rates and more restricted credit, which limits household consumption. For the sector, the gradual recovery indicates that retail is still facing difficulties in resuming more robust growth levels, affecting the pace of expansion of the economy as a whole”,Volnei Eyng, CEO of the asset management company Multiplike.
“The 0.5% growth in Brazilian retail sales in September 2024, as reported by IBGE, reflects the sector’s resilience in the face of persistent economic challenges. This advance, although modest, indicates that factors such as the gradual reduction in inflation and the maintenance of employment levels have supported household consumption. However, the continued increase in debt and still high interest rates may limit a more robust recovery. For the economy as a whole, this performance suggests a gradual recovery, but points to the need for policies that encourage sustainable consumption and the reduction of household debt,”João Kepler, CEO of Equity Fund Group.
“The 0.5% growth in retail sales was below market expectations, which projected a more aggressive increase for the period. Several factors contributed to this growth: reduction in the Selic rate: the Central Bank reduced the basic interest rate from 13.75% per year to 11.25% in the last seven months, facilitating access to credit and stimulating consumption; promotions and discounts: the proximity of Black Friday and other promotional campaigns encouraged consumers to anticipate their purchases, boosting retail sales; improvement in the labor market: the reduction in unemployment and the increase in disposable income contributed to the strengthening of household consumption. In short, the growth in retail sales reflects a combination of favorable macroeconomic factors and effective strategies by the sector to attract consumers, signaling a positive trend for the coming months”,Alex Andrade, CEO da Swiss Capital Invest.
“In September 2024, Brazilian retail sales increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month, according to data released by the IBGE. This result was below market expectations, which projected more robust growth for the period. The increase was mainly driven by the positive performance of the hypermarket and supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco sectors. Despite the progress, the modest result indicates that the retail sector still faces challenges, possibly related to factors such as persistent inflation and credit restrictions, which may be limiting consumers’ purchasing power. For the economy as a whole, this performance suggests a gradual recovery, but still below the expected potential, highlighting the need for policies that stimulate consumption and strengthen consumer confidence. One encouraging thing about the data released today is that, in October, data from private companies, such as the Stone Retail Index, indicate that there should be an acceleration in retail sales. This is a result of the heating up of the labor market and the increase in income, factors that increased consumers’ purchasing power”,Felipe Vasconcellos, Partner at Equus Capital.7
“This growth below expectations reflects that, despite the data showing low unemployment, GDP above 3% and a supposedly buoyant economy, ultimately in consumption, this is not being reflected in practice. Commerce and industry need to understand that, in order to grow today, they need to innovate and create new sources of revenue. This is the formula that worked for us in 2024”,Roberto Jalonetsky, CEO da Speedo Multisport.
“The 0.5% growth in retail sales reflects a slight improvement in the sector, but is still below expectations of a more solid recovery. Although the data was positive compared to the previous month, the expansion is still modest, especially when compared to last year's performance. The slowdown in the annual growth rate, which fell to 2.1%, points to the persistence of structural challenges, such as high inflation and rising interest rates, which continue to impact families' purchasing power”,Carlos Braga Monteiro, CEO of the Studio Group.
“Retail sales rose 0.5% in September, below market expectations, which projected a 1.1% increase. Although there was a recovery after the 0.2% drop in August, the performance still reflects consumption concentrated on priority items, such as food and medicine. This moderate growth indicates that inflation and high interest rates continue to impact consumers’ purchasing power, limiting growth in more discretionary sectors, such as furniture and home appliances, which recorded declines. For the economy, the result reflects a slow pace of recovery in the sector, with the need for policies to stimulate consumption and caution in interest rate adjustments, which may further affect consumption. For investors, the moment requires attention to the essential goods sector, which is showing greater resilience in the face of a scenario of economic restriction”,Sidney Lima, CNPI Analyst at Ouro Preto Investments.
“The increase in retail sales in September reflects a slow recovery, below expectations, highlighting the economic challenges, such as high interest rates and inflation, which still limit households’ purchasing power. For the retail sector as a whole, the scenario points to a slower recovery, but with potential acceleration if effective measures to stimulate consumption are adopted”, Jefferson Laatus, chief strategist of the Laatus group.
