On Black Friday 2024, Brazilian retail experienced a strong recovery. According to the Brazilian Electronic Commerce Association (ABComm), physical retail revenue grew 17.1%, while e-commerce saw an increase of 8.9%, generating over R$9 billion during the sales weekend alone. The association also reported that the number of orders increased by approximately 14%, reaching 18.2 million nationwide. Christmas also saw impressive results. The Cielo Expanded Retail Index (ICVA) recorded a 5.5% increase in shopping mall sales, generating R$5.9 billion during the week of December 19-25. Expanded retail—which includes both physical and online stores—reported growth of 3.4%, driven by sectors such as supermarkets (6%), drugstores (5.8%), and cosmetics (3.3%). E-commerce, according to Ebit|Nielsen, achieved a record Christmas, moving approximately R$26 billion, with an average ticket of R$526, which represented an increase of 17% compared to the previous year.
On high-impact commercial dates like Black Friday and Christmas, sales success isn't determined by luck alone, but by consistent planning. During these periods, which are outside a company's normal business levels, knowing how much and where to invest throughout the value chain becomes a key differentiator in ensuring sales at competitive prices, achieving higher margins that cover investments and add more value to shareholders. This is the proposal of the book " Box da Demanda" (Demand Box ), published by the Aquila Institute and written by Raimundo Godoy, Fernando Moura, and Vladimir Soares. The book presents an innovative management methodology focused on anticipating the future and generating business value. The book emphasizes that with integrated sales force performance and careful market analysis, companies can ensure commercial predictability that will serve as the foundation for all operations.
According to Fernando Moura, partner consultant at Aquila and co-author of Box da Demanda , forecasting the market is a challenge, but also a necessity. "Even though the market seems unpredictable, it's possible to organize information and predict the future using accurate data. In retail, if a company can't look to the future, it's unlikely to adapt to it. Strategic marketing is essential for understanding consumer behavior and anticipating the future, while tactical marketing, in the medium term, ensures assertive decisions about product, price, place, and promotion. All of this with a focus on deeply understanding the customer," he states.
Demand Box methodology provides a practical roadmap for companies to organize themselves in an integrated manner and anticipate consumer behavior, becoming more efficient and profitable. For Vladimir Soares, a partner consultant at Aquila and also a co-author of the book, preparation goes beyond market strategies: it's necessary to look within the company. "Inventory regulates the dynamics of any business. Based on demand forecasting, it's possible to scale inputs, labor, and equipment, improving production efficiency. Integration between marketing, sales, logistics, and suppliers is essential to ensure the product is available when the customer wants it. And none of this works without the role of the leader, who must lead by example, empower their team, and maintain a focus on the end customer. This is the true competitive advantage," he emphasizes.
The book shows how to anticipate the market through strategic marketing, diagnose the company's internal structure to assess its ability to meet demand, integrate areas such as marketing, sales, supply, logistics, and technology, and measure results through productivity, cost, and profitability indicators. According to the authors, preparation is the true competitive advantage on holidays like Black Friday and Christmas. Companies that analyze scenarios, integrate departments, and work with indicators are able to deliver what consumers want, on time, and with the expected quality.
Demand Box tips to prepare your company for strategic dates:
- Stay ahead of the market: Use data and sales history to predict trends and align marketing and pricing strategies.
- Analyze the internal structure: assess whether the company is able to meet the increased demand, from inventory to customer service staff.
- Integrate departments: ensure that marketing, sales, logistics, supplies, and technology work in a coordinated manner, focusing on the end customer.
- Monitor indicators in real time: track productivity, costs, and profitability during the promotional period, adjusting quickly when necessary.
- Lead by example: engage your team, empower employees, and stay focused on delivering the best customer experience.
