The Brazilian postal service, Correios, is facing one of the biggest financial crises in its history, marked by falling revenues, increased costs, and a loss of market share in the parcel delivery sector, which has declined from 51% to 25% in recent years, resulting in an estimated deficit of R$ 10 billion in 2025. The state-owned company could compromise the federal budget in 2026, with projected losses of up to R$ 23 billion if its restructuring plan does not progress as expected. The need to balance the books had already led the company to seek loans from public and private banks earlier this year.
Recently, the institution suspended the contracting of a R$ 20 billion loan from five financial companies due to the high cost of the operation. The National Treasury informed that it would not grant sovereign guarantees for a credit line whose interest rate exceeded the ceiling defined by the agency. The proposal, approved by the company's board of directors on November 29, would be contracted with a syndicate formed by Banco do Brasil, Citibank, BTG Pactual, ABC Brasil, and Safra.
According to Paulo Bittencourt , chief strategist at MZM Wealth , a financial consultancy specializing in financial planning and investments , the situation of the Brazilian postal service (Correios) reflects recurring structural challenges in Brazilian state-owned companies. "The company has been accumulating deficits for years, and the need for loans already indicates that the financial imbalance is profound. The shortfall directly affects the federal budget, generating budget cuts and putting pressure on other priority areas of the government," he states.
According to the Brazilian postal service's recovery plan, restructuring could reduce the deficit as early as 2026 and allow a return to profitability in 2027. The company estimates that approximately R$ 20 billion will be needed to support strategic measures and restore financial balance, including operational adjustments, cost rationalization, and a thorough review of internal processes.
The impact of the situation is not limited to the state-owned company's numbers. According to the expert, high deficits in public companies can compromise the execution of public policies, increase government debt, and create risks for investors and suppliers who have contracts with the state-owned company. The reduction in market share and the need for additional working capital also highlight the urgency of reviewing the management and operating models of the postal service.
According to Paulo Bittencourt , even with the full implementation of the restructuring plan, the return to profitability depends on fiscal discipline and continuous monitoring of the measures adopted. "The evolution of revenues, operational efficiency, and the ability to reduce costs will be determining factors in preventing the deficit from continuing to pressure the federal budget in 2026," he concludes.
