Research reveals logistics trends and opportunities for 2025 Black Friday

As a trend for the 2025 Black Friday, the Southeast and South regions are indicated as the main logistics hubs this year, both for the origin and destination of packages within the country. The data is from the Logistics Map survey, conducted by Loggia, based on predictive analytics and data intelligence considering last year's package movement perspectives. The survey introduces, for the first time, a dedicated section for the event, highlighting trends and forecasts for one of the most important periods in digital retail. The study also predicts a significant increase in goods movement in the Northeast and Central-West regions, reflecting the geographical expansion of online consumption in Brazil.

Among the categories with the highest growth potential for the event are cosmetics and perfumery; followed by clothing and fashion; footwear, electronics and IT; sports goods and food. The segments of jewelry and costume jewelry; games and toys; as well as stationery, bookstores and printing are also expected to stand out — highlighting the diversification in shopping profiles and opportunities for businesses from different niches.

Regarding the average order value, the study reveals distinct expectations depending on the business size. For large brands, the potential average ticket is R$ 197, while small businesses may record an average of R$ 184, reinforcing the relevance of SMEs and independent brands in categories and products with good earnings prospects. 

Brazil's Hinterland drives SME e-commerce

Also according to the Logistics Map, Brazilian e-commerce has been expanding into regions that previously had a lower presence in this sector. The study reveals that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – located in capitals such as São Paulo (SP), Belo Horizonte (MG), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Curitiba (PR) and Brasília (DF) – showed a significant growth of 194% in sending packages to consumers in inland cities, such as Niterói (RJ), Ribeirão Preto (SP), Sorocaba (SP), São José dos Campos (SP) and Vila Velha (ES). This movement highlights the advancement of consumption digitalization outside major urban centers and reinforces the importance of logistics in connecting different regions of the country.

Furthermore, there is another data point confirming the dynamism of online sales: the 80% increase in the volume of packages sent by companies located in inland cities, such as São José dos Pinhais (PR), Brusque (SC), Joinville (SC), Serra (ES) and Londrina (PR), destined for other inland cities such as Santos (SP), Jundiaí (SP), Uberlândia (MG), Maringá (PR) and São José do Rio Preto (SP). This data shows that the interior is also establishing itself as both an origin and destination hub for online purchases, expanding product circulation outside major metropolitan centers.

SMEs opt for pickup points

A model that has been gaining the attention and preference of entrepreneurs, especially due to greater access and reduced shipping costs, is the use of parcel pickup/drop-off points — known as PUDOs (Pick up and Drop off points). The use of these increased by 22% in the third quarter of the year, compared to the second quarter. 

Highlighted regions and categories in Brazilian e-commerce

In the third quarter of 2025, new states gained prominence in the Logistics Map in terms of package movement within the country, following the evolution and diversification of e-commerce among small, medium and large businesses in different regions of Brazil.

During this period, the Central-West consolidated itself as a strategic region, with Goiás leading the growth ranking (+202%) – while Paraná debuted among the five states with the highest movement (+15%). The Northeast and North also advanced: Bahia, Ceará, Pernambuco and Rondônia established themselves as strategic logistics hubs. The Southeast and South regions stood out for having a higher presence of SMEs, with 13% and 22% respectively, surpassing large brands, which recorded 11% and 12% in these same regions. In terms of categories, sports goods recorded the highest growth rate of the quarter (150%), while optical goods grew 310% in the 1st half.