Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more pessimistic about the Brazilian economy at the beginning of this year, reveals the fourth edition of the 'Omie Small Business Survey,' conducted by Omie, a cloud management (ERP) platform. Currently, Brazil has more than 10 million active micro and small enterprises, with about 65% opting for the Simples Nacional. This segment plays a significant role in the Brazilian economy, both in terms of GDP generation and job market opportunities.
The data indicate an increase in the pessimism of small businesses regarding the short-term evolution of the Brazilian economy, considering the rise in interest rates and the increase in inflationary pressures in the country. Meanwhile, most respondents remain optimistic about revenue growth and hiring in their own businesses over the next six months – about 84% expect an increase in their business revenue during this period. This result possibly reflects a still favorable outlook for the evolution of domestic consumption, an essential component for the performance of various activities in the small business sector.
For Felipe Beraldi, economist and manager of Indicators and Economic Studies at Omie, "the positive result is surprising given the challenging macroeconomic scenario and the indications of slowdown in the SME market, as pointed out by IODE-SMEs in recent months. However, some factors may support the optimistic outlook of small entrepreneurs in various segments, such as the continued growth of real labor income and the strong performance of Commerce in recent months."
Even with optimism for the coming months in their own businesses, small companies no longer feel the same about the Brazilian economic environment. The constant increase in interest rates by the Central Bank and the rise in inflation reinforce the perception of a significant slowdown in GDP in 2025. As a reflection of this scenario, 51% of entrepreneurs foresee a worsening in the economy in the short term – an increase compared to the 39% recorded in the September survey. On the other hand, only 21% of respondents expect an improvement in the coming months.
Figure 1Evolution of small business owners and managers' perception of the domestic economic environmentRegarding the Brazilian economy, what is your outlook for the next six months?
Fonte: Sondagem Omie das Pequenas Empresas.
Regarding the labor market, the survey shows positive expectations from small businesses. The study reveals that 43% of respondents expect to open new vacancies in the coming months, a percentage higher than the 37% observed in the September/24 survey. Additionally, 29% indicated they are likely to seek people in the market if there is a need to replace the current team, and 28% do not expect to make hires in the short term – a decrease compared to 36% in the previous survey.
In addition to gathering expectations, the survey also aims to understand the current situation of small businesses. Regarding revenue, 52% reported growth in recent months, although there is a significant balance with those who indicated stagnation or decline (48%). This movement is in line with the recent data from IODE-PMEs, which recorded a modest 3% growth year-over-year in the accumulated data for the last six months up to February 2025. "The latest readings of the index, from December 2024, indicate a slowdown in the market, especially in the Services and Industry sectors, which reinforces the high number of responses in the most pessimistic field, of stagnation or contraction of revenue," explains Beraldi.
Just like last year, the costs and expenses of small businesses increased, according to 80% of participants. The consistency of the responses between the last two editions aligns with the current economic scenario, characterized by pressured inflation and rising expectations.
This context, combined with a heated labor market and a new real increase in the minimum wage this year, has raised labor costs for small business owners. In March 2025, the IGP-M accumulated an increase of 8.6% over the past 12 months, compared to a decrease of 4.3% recorded in the same period of 2024.
Despite the challenges related to cost pressure, small businesses continue to hire, albeit more cautiously and with a focus on replacing personnel. While 54% of companies have recently hired, only half of that number corresponds to the creation of new jobs. There is also a gradual increase in the proportion of companies that are not hiring, rising from 40% in the first half of 2024 to 46% in this edition, which may indicate a scenario of greater caution and strategic adjustments in the sector.
Business owners' pains
The last question of the survey was aimed at understanding the main challenges faced by small business owners in the market. According to them, they are: 'high interest rates' (which increased from 41% of respondents last year to 45% in 2025), followed by 'high labor costs' (which also grew from 41% to 45%), and 'high competitiveness in the segment' (42%).
Figure 2Which market elements most hinder the company's growth?
Source: Omie Small Business Survey.(The results in this section reflect the percentage of choice for each answer option, based on the total number of responding companies in the survey. Thus, the sum of the response percentages can be greater than 100%, considering that each respondent could choose up to three response options.
Beraldi explains that this result reinforces the domestic economic situation, marked by the increases in the Selic rate by the Central Bank and by a still resilient labor market (with rising earnings in reais).
Finally, the theme 'lack of working capital' becomes more relevant, increasing by 30% to 36% in this edition of the study, while 'weak market demand' decreased from 30% to 26%. This loss of relevance of the "weak demand" theme reinforces the perspective of revenue growth among small business owners and managers in the country, but the increased relevance of the mention of "lack of working capital" confirms that historically high interest rates and banks' selectivity in granting credit to small businesses impact the final cost of credit for these agents, says the economist.
The Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey (PTC), released by the Central Bank in February 2025, revealed that the expectations of financial institutions indicate a further worsening in credit supply conditions across all segments.
The fourth edition of the 'Omie Small Business Survey' was conducted with over 460 respondents from the Simplified National regime, mainly decision-makers (such as CEOs, directors, partners, and managers), to anticipate market trends and identify the main challenges faced by small business owners in the country. The response collection period was from 02/11 to 03/17 of 2025.
