Circana, a company specializing in data, technology, and consumer behavior analysis, was one of the highlights at the 9th edition of Mercado Livre Experience, held on September 24th and 25th at the Transamerica Expo Center in São Paulo. During the event, which brought together thousands of entrepreneurs and digital retail specialists, Ana Weber, the company's retail account director, presented groundbreaking insights into the toy and childcare markets.
The toy sector, which had registered a 1% contraction in 2024, returned to growth in 2025. Up to July, global revenue advanced 8% compared to the same period of the previous year, with a 4% increase in units sold and a 3% increase in the average price. Latin America was the region that stood out the most, with a 10% increase, driven especially by Brazil and Mexico, both aligned with the regional expansion rate. Games and puzzles, building blocks, action figures, and collectibles were the best-performing categories, driven by nostalgia, the strength of licensed products, and the movement of so-called " kidults" —adults who consume toys for well-being, collection, or sentimental value. In contrast, dolls, preschool toys, and plush toys showed a decline, reflecting the low birth rate and the early maturation of children.
While the toy market is experiencing a recovery, the baby products market is going through a period of contraction. In the United States, revenue fell 5% in 2025, reaching US$4 billion through July, which represents US$214 million less than the previous year. Only one of seven categories managed to grow: entertainment and travel. American consumers have prioritized hygiene, health, and food items, considered essential and which cannot be purchased secondhand, while furniture, tableware, and bedding and bath items are among the segments most affected by the decline.
“The toy sector is showing clear signs of recovery, and Latin America is leading this movement. In the baby market, we are seeing a more selective consumer who prioritizes safety, hygiene, and convenience. This transformation requires companies to be prepared to meet the needs of very different customer profiles, from first-time parents to adult collectors,” stated Ana Weber.
Circana also highlighted the main challenges and opportunities for the coming years. The reduction in the number of births and the trend among children to outgrow toys earlier and earlier are transforming the dynamics of the industry. At the same time, the search for gender-neutral products, the appreciation of nostalgia, collaborations between brands, and Asian influence in aesthetics and technological innovation offer new avenues for growth. Understanding the customer, and how they make purchasing decisions, has become indispensable for success in the segment, reinforcing the importance of combining market intelligence and innovation in creating competitive strategies.
