In August, theSerasa Experian Trade Activity Indicatorregistered a decrease of 0.9%, the worst of the year so far. Luiz Rabi, the economist from Serasa Experian, comments that, even with a slight deflation in recent months, economic uncertainties and the appreciation of the dollar against the real create a climate of caution, causing consumers and companies to suspend large expenditures. See the graph below showing the monthly variation over the last 12 months:
Rabi adds that, “this entire scenario contributes to consumers adopting a more cautious stance regarding spending, making it difficult for the sector to react.”
In August, according to the monthly variation, the indicator was divided between an increase in the "Fuels and Lubricants" (0.9%) and "Building Materials" (1.6%) sectors and a decrease in the other four, with the most significant decline in "Supermarkets, Hypermarkets, and Food and Beverages" (-0.7%). Check the complete data in the graph below
Annual variation
In terms of annual variation, there was a 2.2% growth; despite being a positive figure, it was the weakest of the year. All segments of Brazilian brick-and-mortar retail, with a highlight on "Fuels and Lubricants" (9.1%), also experienced growth. See below the annual variation of the indicator with a history of the last 12 months and the survey by sector:
Methodology
The Serasa Experian Commerce Activity Indicator is built exclusively on the volume of monthly inquiries made by approximately 6,000 commercial establishments using the Serasa Experian database. The consultations are statistically treated using the trimmed mean method, with a 20% cutoff at the upper and lower extremes of the monthly growth rates, related to each commercial establishment within each of the six retail segments surveyed. For the formation of the Serasa Experian Indicator of Commerce Activity aggregated series, the growth rates resulting from each retail segment are weighted by their relative importance in the IBGE's Monthly Retail Trade Survey – Extended Retail, respecting their methodological revisions.
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