Sales of essential products are expected to hit record on Black Friday 2024

If it depends on the enthusiasm of consumers, Black Friday 2024 promises to be one of the best of recent years in terms of sales volume. Despite this, there are still remnants of precaution with the direction of the economy, which should lead people to give preference to items of absolute relevance for the day to day. These are the main findings of a study by FGV/CEMD (Center for Studies in Digital Marketing of the Getulio Vargas Foundation), using Buzzmonitor software. For experts, this scenario reinforces the need for retail companies and even services to intensify the use of prediction strategies to direct their use.

FGV/CEMD coordinator Lilian Carvalho points out that the Brazilian economic scenario in 2024 shows signs of recovery and optimism, but the search for stability and functionality still guides purchase decisions during this important retail event. “Consumers are prioritizing the purchase of essential items for the home, such as refrigerators and TVs, as well as daily products such as fans and sneakers.This reflects a caution still present among Brazilians, who, despite favorable economic conditions, prefer to invest in products that offer practical and immediate use”, says Lilian Carvalho.

Jhonata Emerick, co-founder and CEO of Datarisk, a company specialized in the use of artificial intelligence and predictive models to generate value, each year predictive ability gains even more decisive tool status between the success or failure of sales strategies adopted for Black Friday.

“Identifying the preferences of buyers according to each economic and social situation with maximum advance is a key factor in decision making for mega promotions like this. After all, despite all the euphoria and fad that surround Black Friday, at the end of the day reality imposes itself with its high investment costs to go out distributing advertising pieces at random without a target chosen by logical criteria based on” data, he says.

According to him, the ideal is to use models that increase predictive capacity through Machine Learning (ML). These solutions can assign a probability of using coupons, for example, for each customer, generating a segmentation in which those that appear with greater probability of using coupons stand out. This will allow the company to direct to them promotional campaigns.“Recently we had the opportunity to develop a project with tools of this type that expanded the predictive capacity of a retail company in such a significant way that it managed to increase in 56% the profit achieved in a promotion with similar characteristics to Black Friday, in this case, to include the use of historical data, from this data were used to register to the company to use.

According to the FGV/CEMD study, Instagram stands out as the platform with the highest volume of mentions of Black Friday, concentrating 87% of interactions and, according to the analysis, most discussions are led by women (71%).