Despite the nominal increase of 4.1% in revenues throughout 2025, Brazilian retail ended the year with a decrease of 1.0% in real terms, discounted inflation.The data are from the Cielo Index of Extended Retail (ICVA), which points to the second consecutive year of real fall in the sector. In 2024, the decrease had been 0.8%.
The result reflects a year marked by more cautious consumption, pressured by the cumulative impact of inflation, especially in the first half OF the YEAR, and by an increasingly rational and selective consumer in purchasing decisions. Even with the slowdown in prices throughout the second stage of the year, the relief was not enough to reverse the negative real performance of retail in the year to date.
IMPACT IN SECTORS
Last year, the main macro sectors showed negative performance in real terms.The Services sector fell 1.9% in 2025, with negative emphasis on Food & Bars and Restaurants. On the other hand, Tourism and Transportation stood out positively throughout the year, driven by the increase in the flow of foreign tourists, the opening of new international routes and the holding of major events in the country.
The Non-Durable Goods macrosector showed a slight decrease of 0.2% in the year. The performance was mainly supported by Drugstores and Pharmacies, while segments such as Bookstores and Stationeries registered the largest falls. Already Durable and Semidurable Goods had a more intense retreat, of 2.6%, despite the positive performance of the Furniture, Electro and Departments sector, which helped mitigate the fall of the group. On the other hand, the segment of Optics and jewelry stores it had more intense recoil for the macrosector.
Throughout 2025, e-commerce has consolidated itself as one of the main pillars of support for retail. The digital channel performed better than face-to-face sales, benefited by the search for convenience, greater price comparison and the reaction of categories more sensitive to interest rates.
“Despite a challenging scenario in the real result of December, we saw important signs: e-commerce maintained a fast pace and helped sustain retail, while interest rate sensitive categories showed greater dynamism.In the accumulated of the year, even with lower inflation in the second half, the impact of the first half limited the real gain, but sectors such as tourism and transportation stood out, reflecting opportunities for 2026”, says Carlos Alves, vice president of Business at Cielo.
DATA FROM THE 4TH QUARTER
In the fourth quarter of 2025, retail maintained the weakening trajectory in real terms. ICVA pointed to a decrease of 1.8% in the period, discounted inflation. The Services macrosector fell 3.9%, while Durable and Semidurable Goods showed a decrease of 4.2%. Non-Durable Goods showed greater resilience, with a slight real growth of 0.2% in the quarter.
The quarterly result reinforces the still-pressed consumption scenario, even in a traditionally warmer period for retail, such as the end of the year.
DECEMBER RESULTS
In December, retail showed a real decline of 1.9%. The performance of the month was influenced by punctual factors, such as the calendar effect with a Wednesday instead of a Sunday compared to the previous year & the advance of e-commerce, which registered nominal growth of 6.0% in December. Physical retail, in turn, was practically stable, with a nominal high of only 0.1%.
Among the macro-sectors, Services showed a real fall of 5.2% in the month, with a negative highlight for Food & Bars and Restaurants. Non-Durable Goods grew 0.4%, driven by Supermarkets and Hypermarkets, while Durable and Semidurable Goods fell 4.5%, despite the positive performance of the Furniture, Electro and Departments sector.
ABOUT THE ICVA
The Cielo do Varejo Expanded Index (ICVA) monthly follows the evolution of Brazilian retail, according to sales made in 18 sectors mapped by Cielo, from small retailers to large retailers. The weight of each sector in the overall result of the indicator is defined by its performance in the month.
ICVA was developed by the Business Analytics area of Cielo with the objective of offering, monthly, a photograph of the retail trade of the country from real information.
HOW IT'S CALCULATED
The Business Analytics unit of Cielo developed mathematical and statistical models applied to the company's base in order to isolate the effects of the accreditation market - such as market share variation, check and money substitution in consumption, as well as the emergence of Pix. In this way, the indicator does not only reflect the activity of trade by movement with cards, but rather the real dynamics of consumption at the point of sale.
This index is not in any way a preview of Cielo's results, which are impacted by a number of other levers, both in revenue and in costs and expenses.
UNDERSTAND INDEX
ICVA Nominal & 4 Indicates the growth of nominal sales revenue in the Extended Retail period, compared to the same period of the previous year.
Deflated ICVA (IPCA) Nominal ICVA discounted from inflation. For this, a deflator calculated from the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), calculated by IBGE, adjusted to the mix and weights of the sectors contained in ICVA is used. It reflects the real growth of Retail, without the contribution of the price increase.
Nominal/deflated ICVA with calendar adjustment 5 ICVA without calendar effects that impact a given month/period, when compared to the same month/period of the previous year.It reflects the pace of growth, allowing to observe accelerations and decelerations of the index.
ICVA E-commerce & Nominal revenue growth indicator in the online retail sales channel, in the period compared to the equivalent period of the previous year.
