The Brazilian Postal Service (Correios) is facing one of the largest financial crises in its history, marked by declining revenues, rising costs, and a loss of market share in the parcel segment, which has dropped from 51% to 25% in recent years, resulting in an estimated shortfall of R$ 10 billion in 2025. The state-owned company could impact the federal budget in 2026, with a projected loss of up to R$ 23 billion if its restructuring plan does not progress as expected. The need to balance its accounts had already led the company to seek loans from public and private banks earlier this year.
Recently, the institution suspended the contracting of a R$ 20 billion loan from five financial firms due to the high cost of the operation. The National Treasury informed that it would not provide a sovereign guarantee for a credit line whose interest rate exceeded the ceiling set by the agency. The proposal, approved by the company's board of directors on November 29, was to be contracted with a syndicate formed by Banco do Brasil, Citibank, BTG Pactual, ABC Brasil, and Safra.
For Paulo Bittencourt, Chief Strategist at MZM Wealth, a financial consultancy specialized in financial planning and investments, the situation at Correios reflects recurring structural challenges in Brazilian state-owned companies. “The company has been accumulating deficits for years, and the need for loans already indicates that the financial imbalance is profound. The shortfall directly affects the federal budget, leading to spending freezes and putting pressure on other government priority areas,” he states.
According to Correios' recovery plan, the restructuring could reduce the deficit as early as 2026 and allow a return to profitability in 2027. The company estimates that approximately R$ 20 billion will be necessary to sustain strategic measures and restore financial balance, including operational adjustments, cost rationalization, and a deep review of internal processes.
The impact of the situation is not limited to the state-owned company's numbers. According to the expert, high deficits in public companies can compromise the execution of public policies, increase government debt, and create risks for investors and suppliers who maintain contracts with the state-owned entity. The reduction in market share and the need for additional working capital also highlight the urgency of reviewing Correios' management and operational models.
According to Paulo Bittencourt, even with the full implementation of the restructuring plan, the return to profitability depends on fiscal discipline and continuous monitoring of the measures adopted. “The evolution of revenues, operational efficiency, and the ability to reduce costs will be determining factors in preventing the deficit from continuing to pressure the federal budget in 2026,” he concludes.
