Mexico’s e-commerce market is the second largest in Latin America, behind Brazil, and is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 25% (higher than Brazil’s 21%) until 2027, reaching $184.2 billion. The forecast comes from the “Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets”, produced by Nuvei, a Canadian fintech payment solutions company.
The Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets analyzes e-commerce in eight high-growth markets mapped by Nuvei: Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Hong Kong, Chile, India, Colombia, and the United Arab Emirates. After presenting results for Brazil and South Africa in February, the report now highlights Mexico and Hong Kong.
Mexico
The growth of e-commerce in Mexico is expected to be driven by greater integration with other countries: cross-border e-commerce is projected to increase from 21% in 2024 to 26% by 2027, a faster pace than observed in Brazil or the average of the surveyed countries.
Another driver of Mexican e-commerce growth will be the advancement of electronic payment methods. The 6% of cash purchases recorded in Nuvei’s study reflects a market still lacking financial inclusion. Despite initiatives like the Interbank Electronic Payment System (SPEI-CoDi) and Mobile Money (DiMo), Mexico lags behind Brazil in this aspect. In early May, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum welcomed Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. The two agreed on economic cooperation efforts, including the transfer of real-time payment technology.
“The e-commerce market in Mexico is in full expansion and modernization, attracting major Brazilian companies,” says Daniel Moretto, Senior Vice President of Nuvei Latin America. “The per capita GDP is 30% higher than ours, and we are a few steps ahead in financial inclusion.”
Hong Kong
Hong Kong stands out among the countries surveyed by the Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets, for having the highest percentage of international e-commerce: 56%, with projections to reach 59% by 2027. Mexico and Brazil, despite showing greater growth potential in the coming years, start from lower penetration rates: 21% and 8%, respectively.
The predominance of cross-border e-commerce observed in Nuvei’s study is no coincidence: Hong Kong is a small market (with 7.8 million inhabitants, far fewer than Mexico’s 137 million or Brazil’s 216 million) and neighbors China, the world’s largest exporter. With 92% of its GDP in the services sector, Hong Kong depends on foreign trade. Thus, it consistently ranks among the world’s most open economies.
With the 24th highest per capita GDP in the world (Mexico ranks 96th and Brazil 104th), Hong Kong allows multinational groups from Brazil and elsewhere to access consumers willing to pay for quality and diversity. It is also a window into the future of retail. There, internet access reaches 95.6% of the population, and the mobile phone subscription rate per capita is the highest in the world: 292 per 100 people.
“Hong Kong is a strategic market as a gateway for companies looking to expand in the region,” says Moretto, Senior Vice President of Nuvei Latin America. “Additionally, it has a diverse, high-income population that consumes premium international brands.”
