Brazilian e-commerce projects high of 10% in 2026 driven by Back to School and Carnival

Brazilian e-commerce started 2026 with optimistic expectations and warming sales in the first quarter E-Consumidor 2026, conducted by Nuvemshop in partnership with Opinion Box, the sector must register a growth of about 10% compared to the previous year, achieving an estimated turnover in R$ 258.4 billion.

The expansion is also reflected in the volume of buyers: the expectation is that 96.87 million Brazilians will make online purchases throughout the year, a high of 2.5% in the annual comparison.The initial boost for these numbers comes from two dates that, traditionally strong in physical retail, gain more and more relevance in digital: back to school and Carnival.

The digitalization of Back to School and the online revelry

Consumer behavior has changed, and the search for convenience and competitive pricing has migrated some of the year-end shopping to the internet.

In the segment of school supplies and electronics, the research of the Locomotive Institute, in partnership with QuestionPro, reveals a hybrid trend:

• 39% consumers want to divide their purchases between physical and online stores;
• 16% they claim that they will buy most of the items exclusively over the internet.

Factors such as the ease of comparing offers and the variety of products are the main drivers of this migration.

Simultaneously, Carnival consolidates itself as a strategic date, especially for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Data from Nuvemshop show that, in the previous year, SMEs billed R$ 2.7 million between January 1 and February 25 only with party-related products such as costumes, props, casual fashion and drinks.

The operational challenge and the risk of blockages

Despite the positive sales scenario, the abrupt increase in orders in short windows of time brings significant operational risks. Industry experts warn that for those who operate in multiple channels (marketplaces), selling more does not automatically mean making more profit if the “” of the operation is not organized.

Failures such as inventory errors, delays in shipping and lack of integration between platforms can generate losses that go beyond the lost sale. The biggest fear of retailers is the penalty by marketplaces.Sales platforms severely punish sellers who cancel orders for lack of product (rupture) or who do not meet delivery deadlines, which can lead to temporary or permanent account lockdown ''an incalculable damage for the remainder of the business year.

“Dates such as back to school and Carnival have revealed who is prepared to climb and who still depends on manual controls”, he says Claudio Dias, CEO of Magis5, company specialized in integration of marketplaces.

Dias highlights the importance of technology to sustain this growth: “When everything happens at the same time, only well-defined processes, with intelligent automation and integrated management, can sustain growth without compromising margin and reputation. Those who try to manage multiple CNPJs and sales channels manually at this time are, in practice, flirting with the blocking of their” account”, concludes the executive.