Carnival helps boost 10% growth of e-commerce in 2026

Brazilian e-commerce enters 2026 with the foot on the accelerator. Projections of the E-Consumer 2026, a survey conducted by Nuvemshop in partnership with Opinion Box, indicate that the sector should grow about 10% compared to 2025, reaching an estimated turnover of R$ 258.4 billion. The number of consumers also advances, and the expectation is that 96.87 million Brazilians make online purchases throughout the year, an increase of 2.5% in the annual comparison.

And so, even before consecrated dates like Black Friday or Christmas, two periods traditionally associated with physical retail have been gaining weight in digital: back to school and Carnival. Together, they not only heat sales in the first months of 2026, but also put to the test the operational capacity of sellers who work in multiple channels.

Back to school warm up retail

On the one hand, the search for school supplies and electronics; on the other, the explosion of sales of seasonal and convenience items. The result is an abrupt increase in the volume of orders in short windows, requiring an almost surgical precision in management. 

The traditional race for school supplies, for example, no longer happens only in the corridors of physical stationery. Data from a survey by the Locomotive Institute, in partnership with QuestionPro, show that 39% of consumers intend to divide purchases between physical and online stores, while 16% state that they must acquire most of the items exclusively through the internet. Price, variety and the possibility of comparing offers in a few clicks are among the factors that explain this migration.

If the return to school warms the first quarter, Carnival consolidates itself as a strategic date for e-commerce, especially for small and medium-sized retailers.Nuvemshop survey points out that SMEs earned R$ 2.7 million between January 1 and February 25, 2025 with products related to the party. Costumes, props, casual fashion, beverages and fast consumer items gain prominence in a period increasingly relevant to digital retail.

The blocking risk

For those who operate in multiple marketplaces, selling more does not necessarily mean making more profit. With peaks of concentrated orders, poorly structured operations face delays, inventory errors, integration failures between marketplaces and, often, losses that are difficult to reverse. Failure to update inventory or delay in shipment does not result only in lost sales: the greatest risk is the penalty of the account. Marketplaces severely punish sellers who stick to deadlines or cancel orders for lack of stock (rupture), which can lead to temporary or permanent blocking of the store, an incalculable loss for the rest of the year.

“Dates such as back to school and Carnival open up who is prepared to climb and who still depends on manual controls”, says Claudio Dias, CEO of Magis5. “When everything happens at the same time, only well-defined processes, with intelligent automation and integrated management, can sustain growth without compromising margin and reputation. Those who try to manage multiple CNPJs and sales channels manually at this time are, in practice, flirting with the blocking of their” account.

In practice, these dates work as a test of resistance of e-commerce.Mature sellers can anticipate demands, adjust prices quickly, synchronize inventories and maintain the level of service. Already those who have not invested in automation end up putting out fires, often too late.

“With an integration hub, the seller can make adjustments centrally and distribute them to all channels at once, respecting the rules of each marketplace. The technology takes care of the operation so that the manager can focus on the” strategy, concludes the CEO of Magis5.