In august, the Serasa Experian Trade Activity Indicator recorded a fall of 0.9%, the worst of the year so far. The economist of Serasa Experian, Luiz Rabi, comments that even with a slight deflation in recent months, economic uncertainties and the appreciation of the dollar against the real generate a climate of caution, causing consumers and companies to suspend large expenses. See, in the chart below, the monthly variation of the last 12 months:
Rabi adds that, “this whole scenario contributes to consumers taking a more cautious stance on spending, making it difficult for the industry to react
In August, still according to the monthly variation, the indicator was divided between high in the sectors of “Fuel and Lubricants” (0.9%) and “Material Construction” (1.6%) and fall in the other four, the most pronounced in “Supermarkets, Hypermarkets and Food and Beverages” (-0.7%).
Annual variation
In view of the annual variation, there was growth of 2.2%, although a positive number, it was the weakest of the year. All segments of the Brazilian physical trade, especially “Fuel and Lubricants” (9.1%), also registered growth.See, below, the annual variation of the indicator with a history of the last 12 months and the survey by sector:
Methodology
The Serasa Experian Trade Activity Indicator is built exclusively by the volume of monthly consultations conducted by about 6,000 commercial establishments to the Serasa Experian database. The consultations are statistically treated by the method of trimmed averages, with a cut of 20% at the upper and lower ends of the monthly growth rates, relative to each commercial establishment within each of the six retail segments surveyed. For the formation of the aggregated series of Serasa Experian Trade Activity Indicator, the growth rates of each segment resulting from each retail segment are weighted by the relative weight of each of each of them in the Monthly Survey of Trade-Ibarejo, Varejo de Varejo de Variado.
Serasa Experian
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