Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more pessimistic about the Brazilian economy at the beginning of this year, reveals the fourth edition of the ‘Omie Survey of Small Businesses,’ conducted by Omie, a cloud-based management (ERP) platform. Currently, Brazil has over 10 million active micro and small businesses, with about 65% opting for the Simples Nacional regime. This segment plays a significant role in the Brazilian economy, both in terms of GDP generation and job creation.
The data points to an increase in pessimism among small businesses regarding the short-term evolution of the Brazilian economy, given rising interest rates and increasing inflationary pressures in the country. However, most respondents remain optimistic about revenue growth and hiring in their own businesses over the next six months—around 84% expect an increase in their business revenue during this period. This result likely reflects a still favorable outlook for domestic consumption growth, a crucial component for the performance of various activities in the SME sector.
According to Felipe Beraldi, economist and manager of Economic Indicators and Studies at Omie, ‘the positive result is surprising given the challenging macroeconomic scenario and signs of cooling in the SME market, as indicated by the IODE-PMEs in recent months. However, several factors may support the optimistic outlook of small entrepreneurs across various sectors, such as the continued growth of real labor income and the strong performance of the Commerce sector in recent months.’
Despite optimism about their own businesses in the coming months, small businesses no longer feel the same about the Brazilian economic environment. The constant rise in interest rates by the Central Bank and increasing inflation reinforce the perception of a significant GDP slowdown in 2025. Reflecting this scenario, 51% of entrepreneurs predict a worsening economy in the short term—an increase from the 39% recorded in the September survey. On the other hand, only 21% of respondents expect improvement in the coming months.
Figure 1: Evolution of small business owners and managers’ perception of the domestic economic environmentRegarding the Brazilian economy, what are your expectations for the next six months?
Source: Omie Survey of Small Businesses.
Regarding the labor market, the survey shows positive expectations among small businesses. The study reveals that 43% of respondents expect to open new positions in the coming months, a percentage higher than the 37% observed in the September/24 survey. Additionally, 29% are inclined to hire if there is a need to replace current team members, and 28% do not expect to hire in the short term—a reduction compared to the 36% in the previous survey.
In addition to collecting expectations, the survey also seeks to understand the current situation of small businesses. Regarding revenue, 52% reported growth in recent months, although there is a significant balance with those who indicated stagnation or decline (48%). This trend aligns with recent IODE-PMEs data, which recorded modest year-over-year growth of 3% over the last six months up to February 2025. ‘The most recent readings of the index, starting from December 2024, point to a cooling market, especially in the Services and Industry sectors, which reinforces the high number of responses in the more pessimistic category of revenue stagnation or decline,’ explains Beraldi.
As in the previous year, costs and expenses for small businesses have increased, according to 80% of participants. The consistency of responses between the last two editions aligns with the current economic scenario, marked by pressured inflation and rising expectations.
This context, coupled with a heated labor market and another real increase in the minimum wage this year, has raised labor costs for small business owners. In March 2025, the IGP-M accumulated an 8.6% increase over the last 12 months, contrasting with the 4.3% drop recorded in the same period in 2024.
Despite challenges related to cost pressures, small businesses continue to hire, albeit more cautiously and with a focus on replacing staff. While 54% of businesses recently made hires, only half of this number corresponds to creating new positions. There is also a gradual increase in the share of businesses not hiring, rising from 40% in the first half of 2024 to 46% in this edition, which may signal a scenario of greater caution and strategic adjustments in the sector.
Business owners’ pain points
The survey’s final question aimed to understand the main pain points of small business owners in the market. According to them, these are: ‘high interest rates’ (which increased from 41% of respondents last year to 45% in 2025), followed by ‘high labor costs’ (which also rose from 41% to 45%) and ‘high competition in the sector’ (42%).
Figure 2: Which market factors most hinder your company’s growth?
Source: Omie Survey of Small Businesses. (The results in this topic reflect the percentage of each response option chosen, with the denominator being the total number of survey respondents. Thus, the sum of response percentages may exceed 100%, considering that each respondent could choose up to three answer options.)
Beraldi explains that this result reinforces the domestic economic situation, marked by Selic rate hikes by the Central Bank and a still resilient labor market (with rising real earnings).
Finally, the issue of ‘lack of working capital’ gained relevance, rising from 30% to 36% in this edition of the study, while ‘weak market demand’ decreased from 30% to 26%. ‘This reduced relevance of the weak demand issue reinforces the revenue growth perspective among small business owners and managers in the country, but the increased mention of lack of working capital confirms that historically high interest rates and banks’ selectivity in granting credit to small businesses impact the final cost of credit for these agents,’ says the economist.
The Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey (PTC), released by the Central Bank in February 2025, revealed that financial institutions’ expectations indicate a further worsening in credit supply conditions across all segments.
The fourth edition of the ‘Omie Survey of Small Businesses’ was conducted with over 460 Simples Nacional respondents, primarily decision-makers (such as CEOs, directors, partners, and managers), to anticipate market trends and identify the main pain points of small business owners in the country. The response collection period ran from 02/11 to 03/17, 2025.
