After a January marked by the traditional seasonal slowdown in retail, February brought a scenario of consistent recovery, with significant growth in foot traffic and revenue compared to the same period last year. Data from the Retail Performance Index (IPV), released by HiPartners, reveals a widespread recovery, with a focus on street stores, specific sectors, and heterogeneous yet positive regional performance.
Foot traffic showed significant growth, especially in street stores, which recorded an 18% year-over-year increase, while mall stores had a more moderate increase of 3%.
In revenue, the national advance was 8%, driven by widespread increases across all regions. The North stood out with an 11.15% revenue growth, followed by the Midwest, which recorded a 9.87% increase, overcoming challenges in foot traffic, which fell 24.80% in the same region. The South, in turn, led growth in customer traffic (+28.70%), albeit with more modest performance in revenue (+6.45%).
| Average Ticket (%) | |
| General Physical Stores | 8.4 |
| Physical Stores located on the Street | 8.0 |
| Physical Stores located in Malls | 10.2 |
| Physical Stores by Region (%) | |
| Midwest | 9.6 |
| Northeast | 10.4 |
| North | 7.6 |
| Sul | 7.5 |
| Southeast | 8.0 |
The overall average ticket rose by 8.4%, with regional and establishment-type variations. Mall stores saw a 10.2% increase, while street stores advanced by 8.0%. Regionally, the Northeast led in average ticket (+10.4%), followed by the Midwest (+9.6%). The North (+7.6%) and South (+7.5%) showed smaller increases but aligned with the national average.
Sector-wise, all segments saw revenue growth, with emphasis on Textiles, Apparel, and Footwear, with a 16.20% increase, and Furniture and Appliances (+10.97%). The Pharmaceutical, Medical, Orthopedic, Perfumery, and Cosmetics category grew by 7%, indicating stable, though less dynamic, demand. The numbers reinforce the diversification of recovery, with credit-sensitive and discretionary spending sectors gaining strength.
Contrast with January and macroeconomic context
In January, Restricted Retail (excluding vehicles and construction materials) grew by 3.1% year-over-year, while Expanded Retail advanced by 2.2%. Despite this, seasonal adjustments revealed moderate declines in Restricted Retail, reflecting challenges such as food inflation, which impacted supermarkets (-3.4% in the monthly margin). The pharmaceutical sector, which had grown by 9.6% in December, slowed to 6.2% in January, indicating normalization after previous peaks.
The increase in import tax to 20% on purchases up to $50, effective since August 2024 under the Remessa Conforme program, continues to influence retail. Data from the Federal Revenue show a 45.9% drop in the customs value of international shipments between July and August 2024, with limited recovery in subsequent months. The change has redirected consumers to domestic retailers, strengthening the domestic market.
HiPartners highlights that February’s results confirm the resilience of Brazilian retail.
“Retail performance reflects a scenario of adjustments and consolidation. The growth of Restricted and Expanded Retail year-over-year shows resilience, but seasonal declines indicate that challenges such as food inflation continue to pressure essential categories, such as supermarkets. The slowdown in the pharmaceutical sector also suggests normalization after a period of strong growth. On the other hand, the increase in import tax has reshaped consumption dynamics. The significant drop in international shipments and the reorientation of demand to national retailers signal a strategic opportunity for the sector. Brands that can leverage this movement with assortment adjustments, operational efficiency, and digital integration will have a competitive advantage in a more protected yet still challenging market scenario,” explains Eduardo Terra, partner at HiPartners.
The IPV consolidates as a thermometer to understand retail dynamics, offer strategic insights, and anticipate trends. With the resumption of growth in February, expectations for the coming months are optimistic, provided factors such as inflation, credit, and fiscal policies remain stable. HiPartners reinforces its commitment to monitoring these indicators, helping companies navigate a complex yet opportunity-filled scenario.
