The American betting platform Polymarket has opened a speculative market questioning whether Supreme Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes will be impeached in 2025.
Last week, traders on the platform bet on an 18% chance of the justice being removed by the Brazilian Senate by the end of this year, a five-percentage-point increase from the previous week
The fluctuation is a direct reflection of the house arrest order issued by Moraes against former President Jair Bolsonaro, which sparked new backlash from Donald Trump’s White House.
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The peak of impeachment bets
The peak in bets favoring Alexandre de Moraes’ impeachment occurred on July 10, 2025, when tensions between Brazil and the United States reached a new level. On that date, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, justifying the measure as a direct response to Supreme Court rulings against former President Jair Bolsonaro, many of which were signed by Moraes.
At that moment, the market reacted with increased bets that the Brazilian Senate would yield to international pressure and initiate impeachment proceedings against the justice, pushing the “yes” contract value to over 25 cents—the highest recorded value so far.
Since then, however, interest in this scenario has weakened, and the bet’s value has fallen, reflecting declining confidence that the U.S. will be able to influence the Brazilian Congress.
