Global e-commerce reaffirms its growth trajectory in 2025, driven by the digitalization of consumption and technological innovations that redefine the shopping experience.
The strong performance, in a challenging global macroeconomic context, reinforces the sector as an essential driver of the digital economy and highlights the importance of efficient and strategic supply partners to ensure the competitiveness of operations.
Companies that invest in transparency, qualification, and continuous monitoring of suppliers establish the foundation for a robust and resilient supply chain, capable of facing the complexities of the market.
Global overview: Asian leadership and expanding markets
In this highly competitive environment, China maintains its global prominence and acts as a true laboratory for trends.
In the first half of 2025, online sales of physical goods in the country totaled ¥6.12 trillion (approximately R$4.6 trillion), a volume that represented 24.9% of its total retail sales, according to data from the Chinese government.
The country's leadership is not solely due to its large population, but rather to a combination of advanced technological infrastructure, a culture of mass mobile payments, and a mature digital retail ecosystem.
The United States ranks second, with e-commerce supported by large marketplaces and highly sophisticated logistics.
Other Asian and European markets, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea, occupy the following positions, with their economic indicators showing steady growth, albeit at a different pace than China's.
Internet penetration and the growing use of smartphones in emerging economies, such as India and Brazil itself, indicate that the potential for expansion in these locations remains high.
In this context, our country solidifies its relevance by positioning itself among the ten largest e-commerce markets in the world. Projections for the end of 2025 indicate that the sector should register a revenue of R$ 234.9 billion.
The Brazilian Association of Electronic Commerce (ABComm) indicates that Brazil has approximately 94 million active buyers who maintain an average ticket of R$ 539.28 each.
China's secret to preserving world leadership.
China's superiority in e-commerce is multifactorial. The country's dominance is not limited to the scale of consumption; it also encompasses constant innovation in business models and technology.
Initially, the digital infrastructure is inclusive and robust. Most transactions occur via mobile devices, with digital payments (such as Alipay and WeChat Pay), which facilitates conversion and eliminates barriers.
China was also a pioneer, and continues to be a leader, in the integration of content and commerce. Live shopping, for example, which combines entertainment and sales through live broadcasts, already represents a significant share of total digital sales in the country and serves as inspiration for Western markets.
Platforms like Shein and Temu exemplify the agility and sophistication of local supply chains, which are able to respond to consumer demand in an ultra-fast manner.
Another reason is the intensive use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data, which allow for hyper-personalization of the experience. Predictive algorithms guide production, storage, and marketing, making the Chinese ecosystem one of the most efficient and adaptable in the world.
Brazil's performance in the global Top 10
ABComm's revenue forecast is based on massive digital adoption, as the country has a high connectivity rate and a strong consumer preference for m-commerce (mobile commerce), which simplifies the purchasing journey.
Another reason is innovation in payments, due to the introduction and popularization of instant payment methods. In this scenario, Pix stands out, as it revolutionized the speed of transactions, reduced clearing time, and facilitated financial inclusion for millions of Brazilians.
Logistics maturity also plays a significant role. The increasing professionalization of marketplaces and logistics operators has improved deliveries and enabled access to previously underserved regions.
Despite the progress, the national market, with its tax complexity and vast continental dimensions, demands that companies pay special attention to operational efficiency.
Logistics and competitiveness: the role of supplier management
In e-commerce, delays or failures in the delivery of an item compromise customer satisfaction, negatively impact brand reputation, and increase complaint and return rates.
Since there is no room for logistical errors, a strategic approach to supplier management is essential to ensure efficiency, final product quality, and strict cost control.
Effective management of these partners contributes to improving quality control, optimizing delivery flow, reducing expenses such as sourcing and inbound freight, and decreasing the likelihood of supply chain disruptions.
The current scenario, which demands that companies pay attention to sustainability and compliance (ESG) criteria, makes supplier qualification a factor for competitive survival.
The use of specific systems, such as an SRM (Supplier Relationship Management), offers robust solutions that automate due diligence and help mitigate legal and reputational risks associated with this type of partnership.
Global trends shaping the sector
Two trends deserve highlighting for their potential to transform the sector globally by 2025: Social Commerce and BNPL.
The first refers to the direct sale of products directly on social media, a process that simplifies the customer journey by eliminating the need to redirect them to the e-commerce website.
This model is gaining traction because it allows brands to leverage the engagement and credibility of digital influencers to boost conversions. The format is also powerful for engaging young audiences, who value authenticity and the convenience of shopping in the same environment where they consume content.
A study by Accenture revealed that global social commerce sales will reach $1.2 trillion by the end of 2025.
The second trend (Buy Now, Pay Later) is a type of credit that allows consumers to pay for purchases in installments without needing a traditional credit card.
This feature is a flexible and transparent payment method that helps prevent shopping cart abandonment and acts as an incentive for high-value purchases.
This model is a powerful ally for e-commerce, as it transfers credit risk to the financial institution offering the service, while increasing the consumer's purchasing power.
Worldpay, for example, predicts that BNPL will account for approximately 15% of global e-commerce payments by 2025.
How to stay on top of the e-commerce market.
E-commerce in 2025 demonstrates a remarkable balance between scale and sophistication. The pace of innovation remains in the hands of China, but several countries stand out for their growth potential, such as Brazil.
Global leadership is based on robust digital and logistical foundations, in which supplier management proves to be a crucial strategic differentiator for the smooth operation of the business.
In an environment where consumers demand speed, personalization, and socio-environmental compliance, the success of digital retail inevitably depends on an efficient supply partnership. This relationship helps guarantee delivery, quality, adherence to deadlines, and the satisfaction of end customers.
