Will 2025 be a year with less e-commerce fraud?

Whenever we talk about online shopping, we can't help but mention something that terrifies both consumers and retailers: fraud. And it's no wonder, as data from the report "The State of Fraud and Abuse 2024" shows that losses from these cyber scams are projected to exceed US$1,400,000 by 2027. However, just as criminals are becoming increasingly creative in developing criminal initiatives, companies have also taken excellent steps to ensure a safe environment for their consumers. So, can we say that 2025 will be a year in which e-commerce fraud will see a reduction?

A BigDataCorp study showed that the digital security index of Brazilian e-commerce reached over 95% in early 2024 thanks to the increased use of SSL (Secure Sockets Layer), which uses encryption to protect users' data. Furthermore, consumers themselves are more alert and are more able to identify fraudulent transactions. According to a survey by Opinion Box, 91% of users have abandoned an online purchase precisely because they were suspicious of scams.

Another factor that helps combat fraud is Artificial Intelligence. Through its use combined with data analysis and machine learning, for example, many retailers can define patterns for a normal transaction and act in advance when they spot a suspicious purchase. The technology can be based on a variety of factors, such as recurrence, purchase location, most used payment method, customer profile, etc.

Furthermore, AI can profile suspicious users, blocking their access to the e-commerce platform and preventing future scams. In this case, the technology, also related to machine learning, relies on various information such as online behavior and profile analysis, monitoring email addresses, IP addresses, and phone numbers. With this data, retailers can trace an individual's intentions, checking for potential identity theft, account hacking, and even past defaults.

Given this range of possibilities, a survey by the Association of Certified Fraud Investigators (ACFE) and SAS shows that 46% of anti-fraud professionals in Latin America already use AI and machine learning in their daily work. Furthermore, an EY study indicates that the technology is approximately 90% accurate in detecting spam, malware, and network intrusions. 

While there is still no complete data on the number of e-commerce frauds during 2024, as we are still in early 2025, 2023 saw a significant drop of 29% in attempted scams on these platforms, according to data from the 2024 Fraud X-Ray survey. This sparks hope, showing that technology has been an ally and contributes to a more optimistic outlook for the sector.

Thus, we can say that combating fraud in the online environment is increasingly effective, with technologies that inhibit criminal activity. Although it seems quite challenging, the outlook for 2025 is positive, with greater confidence and security on the part of retailers. While it's difficult to confirm whether fraud will actually decrease this year, we are convinced that players are adapting to ensure that online scams become increasingly rare, giving way to an excellent customer experience on platforms.