Global e-commerce reaffirms its growth trajectory in 2025, driven by the digitalization of consumption and technological innovations that redefine the shopping experience.
Its strong performance, within a challenging global macroeconomic context, reinforces the sector as an essential engine of the digital economy and highlights the importance of efficient and strategic supply partners to ensure operational competitiveness.
Companies that invest in transparency, qualification, and continuous monitoring of suppliers establish the foundation for a robust and resilient supply chain, capable of facing market complexities.
Global panorama: Asian leadership and expanding markets
In this scenario of intense competitiveness, China maintains its global prominence and acts as a true trend laboratory.
In the first half of 2025, the country's online sales of physical goods totaled ¥6.12 trillion (approximately R$4.6 trillion), a volume representing 24.9% of its total retail, according to Chinese government data.
The country's leadership is not only due to its vast population but rather to the combination of advanced technological infrastructure, a culture of mass mobile payments, and a mature digital retail ecosystem.
The United States occupies the second position, with e-commerce sustained by large marketplaces and highly sophisticated logistics.
Other Asian and European markets, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea, hold the following positions, with their economic indicators showing steady growth, albeit at a different pace than China's.
Internet penetration and the growing use of smartphones in emerging economies, such as India and Brazil itself, indicate that the expansion potential in these locations remains high.
In this panorama, our country solidifies its relevance by positioning itself among the ten largest e-commerce markets in the world. Projections for the end of 2025 indicate the sector should record revenue of R$234.9 billion.
The Brazilian E-commerce Association (ABComm) points out that Brazil has about 94 million active buyers sustaining an average ticket of R$539.28 each.
China's secret to preserving global leadership
Chinese superiority in e-commerce is multifactorial. The country is not limited to consumption scale and also encompasses constant innovation in business models and technology.
Primarily, the digital infrastructure is inclusive and robust. Most transactions occur via mobile devices, with digital payments (such as Alipay and WeChat Pay), which facilitates conversion and eliminates barriers.
China was also the pioneer, and remains the leader, in integrating content and commerce. Live shopping, for example, which combines entertainment and sales in live broadcasts, already represents a significant share of total digital sales in the country and serves as inspiration for Western markets.
Platforms such as Shein and Temu exemplify the agility and sophistication of local supply chains, which can respond to consumer demand ultra-rapidly.
Another reason is the intensive use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data, which enable a hyper-personalized experience. Predictive algorithms guide production, storage, and marketing, making the Chinese ecosystem one of the most efficient and adaptable in the world.
O desempenho do Brasil no Top 10 global
ABComm's revenue forecast is based on massive digital adoption, as the country has a high connectivity rate and a strong consumer preference for m-commerce (mobile commerce), which simplifies the purchasing journey.
Another reason is innovation in payments, due to the introduction and popularization of instant payment methods. In this scenario, Pix stands out, as it revolutionized transaction speed, reduced settlement time, and facilitated the financial inclusion of millions of Brazilians.
Logistics maturation also carries significant weight. The growing professionalization of marketplaces and logistics operators has improved deliveries and enabled reach to previously underserved regions.
Despite the advances, the national market, with its tax complexity and extensive continental dimensions, requires companies to pay special attention to operational efficiency.
Logistics and competitiveness: the role of supplier management
In e-commerce, the delay or failure in delivering an item compromises customer satisfaction, negatively impacts brand reputation, and increases complaint and return rates.
As there is no room for logistical errors, a strategic approach to supplier management is indispensable to ensure efficiency, final product quality, and rigorous cost control.
Effective management of these partners contributes to improving quality control, optimizing delivery flow, reducing costs such as sourcing and inbound freight, and lowering the probability of supply chain disruptions.
The current scenario, which requires companies to pay attention to sustainability and compliance (ESG) criteria, makes supplier qualification a factor of competitive survival.
The use of specific systems, such as an SRM (Supplier Relationship Management), offers robust solutions that automate due diligence and help mitigate legal and reputational risks in this type of partnership.
Global trends shaping the sector
Two trends deserve highlight for their power to transform the sector globally in 2025: Social Commerce and BNPL.
The first refers to the direct sale of products on social media platforms, a process that simplifies the customer journey by eliminating the need for redirection to the e-commerce website.
This modality consolidates itself by allowing brands to leverage the engagement and credibility of digital influencers to drive conversion. The format is also powerful for engaging the young audience, who value authenticity and the convenience of buying in the same environment where they consume content.
An Accenture study revealed that global social commerce sales will reach US$1.2 trillion by the end of 2025.
The second trend (Buy Now, Pay Later) is a credit modality that allows consumers to split purchases without the need for a traditional credit card.
This feature is a flexible and transparent payment method that helps prevent cart abandonment and acts as an incentive for high-value purchases.
The model is a powerful ally for e-commerce, as it transfers credit risk to the financial institution offering the service, while increasing consumer purchasing power.
Worldpay, for example, predicts that BNPL will represent about 15% of global e-commerce payments by 2025.
Como se manter no topo do mercado de e-commerce
E-commerce in 2025 demonstrates a remarkable balance between scale and sophistication. The pace of innovation remains in China's hands, but several countries stand out for their growth potential, such as Brazil.
Global leadership is based on robust digital and logistical foundations, in which supplier management proves to be a crucial strategic differentiator for the smooth operation of the business.
In an environment where consumers demand speed, personalization, and socio-environmental compliance, the success of digital retail inevitably depends on an efficient supply partnership. This relationship helps ensure delivery, quality, deadline compliance, and the satisfaction of end customers.
