Game Change: Predictions for the iGaming market after regulation in betting houses

The regulation of the betting market in Brazil, consolidated with the sanction of Law 14,790 in December 2023, inaugurated a chapter for the iGaming sector – a term that refers to all betting-based activities that occur on online platforms. The measure established clearer rules and boosted the growth of a previously limited and informal market. In addition to opening new opportunities for companies and players, regulation strengthens legal security, expanding user confidence and attracting investments.

Although this action took a significant step towards structuring the segment in Brazil, some significant challenges still persist. One of the main ones is the illegal betting market. It continues to represent a considerable portion of the sector, moving around R$ 8 billion per month, according to estimates from the Central Bank, without the tax contribution generated by a formalized market. This situation harms fiscal revenue collection and hinders the full exploitation of the sector’s potential in the country.

According to Marlon Tseng, CEO of Pagsmile, a payment gateway specialized in solutions that connect businesses to emerging markets, “the legalization and regulation of iGaming in Brazil pave the way for sustainable growth. In addition to tax revenue, legal security stimulates investments and the arrival of new operators, consolidating a more competitive and reliable sector for consumers”.

A survey by the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) points out that the Brazilian licensed sports betting market could generate USD 34 billion in revenue by 2028 — an indication of the sector’s growth potential under the new regulation. In 2024 alone, according to the Central Bank, the monthly transfer volume for bets ranged from BRL 18 billion to BRL 21 billion.

In addition, according to other estimates from the Central Bank, Brazilians spent around BRL 20 billion on online bets in September 2024 (including the BRL 8 billion moved by illegal operators, causing the government to lose out on BRL 30 million in operating fees).

Marlon emphasizes that with a more structured environment, the betting sector becomes more attractive to investors and operators. He explains that a regulated market benefits not only companies but the entire economy, creating an environment where transparency and compliance with laws ensure the sector’s strengthening and attract more investors interested in participating in a solid and ethical market.

“This new scenario favors innovation in business models and requires platforms to adapt to legal requirements, driving the entry of new players and the professionalization of the sector, positioning Brazil as one of the most promising destinations for betting in Latin America,” he concludes.