The "Declaration of Economic Independence," announced by President Donald Trump in April, marked a new phase in the global protectionist escalation. By imposing a base tariff of 10% on all American imports—with surcharges reaching up to 44% for countries like China and Taiwan—the US has profoundly altered global technology supply chains. At the center of this geoeconomic reorganization, Brazil faces a paradox: unprecedented challenges, but also strategic opportunities.
Although the country was subjected only to the minimum tariff of 10%, the consequences are not trivial. Brazilian technology importers face immediate increases in equipment acquisition costs from the US, as well as indirect effects — since many products include components from heavily tariffed countries. The Brazilian tax structure worsens this scenario, creating a cascading effect that can increase the final cost of certain technological devices by more than 70%.
Sectors such as hardware, IT infrastructure, and cloud services are experiencing distinct pressures. While multinationals deal with squeezed margins or price increases, domestic manufacturers gain relative competitiveness and opportunities to provide more affordable solutions in the face of global uncertainty.
Increase in cyber attacks
But the risks are not only economic, as the unstable trade environment favors the growth of digital threats, according to NSFOCUS, a global reference in cybersecurity. The relationship between economic sanctions and increased hacker activity is well documented—and is already beginning to manifest.
Organizations operating critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, energy networks, and transportation, are forced to quickly replace suppliers and redesign their technological ecosystems. This transition, made under pressure, opens gaps for cyberattacks. The cost of adaptation can come not only in monetary terms but also in vulnerabilities exploited by cybercriminals.
Paths to Brazil
In this new global scenario, the Brazilian technology sector needs to act quickly and intelligently. Some key measures include:
- Review supply chainsIdentify critical dependencies on suppliers located in high-tariff countries.
- Encourage selective nationalizationSearch for local or regional alternatives for strategic components.
- Reinforce cybersecurityInvest in robust digital protection practices, especially in essential sectors.
- Monitor the diplomatic and tariff landscapeAdjust strategic decisions based on the evolution of international negotiations.
- Reevaluate stock and pricing policiesMinimize immediate impacts and prevent supply disruptions.
Between risk and opportunity, Brazil can emerge more competitive in some areas, especially in American markets that previously depended heavily on China. However, this will require overcoming logistical, fiscal, and technological obstacles, amidst the historic windows open for those willing to act strategically.
