The consecutive increase in the Selic rate, which now stands at 13.25% per year—with projections to reach 15% according to the Central Bank’s Focus Report—reveals an interesting phenomenon: it represents both a challenge and an opportunity for retail. This is because, with the rise in the basic interest rate, credit naturally becomes more expensive and, therefore, more restricted to only a portion of the population; simultaneously, this situation gives retailers the opportunity to take the lead by offering good credit limit options to those not covered by traditional credit lines. After all, regardless of interest rates, inflation, or the dollar’s rise, people will continue to have needs that must be met, whether basic or not.
Several factors support this leading role of retail: according to Febraban, the estimated growth in credit stock for this year is expected to be lower than in 2024, hovering around 9%. Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index reached its lowest level since February 2023, hitting 86.2 points, according to FGV IBRE. And in an economic scenario like the one we’re experiencing now—which I illustrated above—it’s common for non-essential items like clothing and footwear to take a backseat, with spending priorities shifting to food, medicine, and fuel, for example.
So, if a consumer goes to a clothing store, they may need a credit line that doesn’t compromise the limit of their bank-issued credit card to buy an item, as that credit limit is reserved for essential purchases like those mentioned earlier. In this scenario, the need arises for a new credit line, whether for the customer to buy clothing or even a TV or refrigerator, which are also necessary depending on the context.
Naturally, this customer will use the credit line offered by retailers who have this resource. This creates a crucial bond of trust between the consumer and the retailer, strengthened by a relationship previously built through other retail services like Private Label cards and CDC (Consumer Direct Credit). In this context, the window of opportunity is vast, as retail becomes one of the main channels for granting credit to end consumers, given that financial institutions don’t have consumer goods for sale or a physical counter for customer interaction—features inherent to retail.
Retail may face the challenge of dealing with consumer defaults, but it still needs to keep sales growing. So, retailers prefer to take this risk and make the sale to the customer, increasing the purchase ticket, rather than missing the opportunity. At the same time, retailers know they must avoid mistakes when selecting customers eligible for a credit line, which is why they need good CRM tools, credit management, and collection systems to oversee the entire customer lifecycle. This includes evaluating the type of consumption the customer engages in, their average spending, their profile, etc.—all of which help retailers in both approval and limit increases, enabling these customers to make purchases in their stores. This is one of the major opportunities amid the challenges the sector will face in 2025.
Moreover, retail has a significant advantage over financial institutions: in cases of default, repayment policies are much more customer-friendly, as the sector focuses on delighting customers and bringing them back to the store to buy more, rather than losing them. In contrast, the relationship between consumers and banks is often purely transactional. This exchange is part of retail’s DNA, as even in adverse situations, customer loyalty is essential. Amid this opportunity, retail must be highly effective, fast, smart, and cautious.
A highly efficient payment model that retailers can offer as an alternative to credit cards is Digital CDC/BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later), which works well for durable goods purchases, functioning like the old installment plans. There’s a limit allowing customers to make recurring purchases as often as they want, while also enabling approval of a credit limit per specific purchase.
Today, with simplified payment methods, this product is particularly useful, having undergone digital transformation: transactions are tokenized and use facial biometrics, allowing payments via online bills within the app or Pix, etc. These credit modalities I mentioned earlier are more than just credit access tools—they serve as key products capable of driving targeted campaigns and ensuring offerings tailored to each customer’s profile.
Additionally, they are highly strategic tools for reactivating customers already in the retailer’s database who haven’t made purchases—i.e., inactive users. Thus, there needs to be a reactivation of the user base and older consumers with targeted offers, based on new experiences and a frictionless journey for the customer at every stage, from activation to bill payments.
Another trend that, based on my expertise, will stand out this year is tokenization, including offline token payments outside the app’s logged-in environment. With proper security authentications, I believe this type of transaction will also help reduce friction in retail purchases. I also highlight the consolidation of Pix, which reached 63.51 billion transactions in 2024, according to BACEN, but remains a crucial payment agenda for retailers and end customers, as it benefits both sides.
For retailers, the money enters their account immediately and isn’t tied up in financial institutions or credit intermediaries. For end customers who need credit to make new purchases, they can enjoy the benefits of the store card, product discounts, but pay their bills via Pix—whether in the app or at the store’s kiosk—and have their credit limit restored in seconds. For both sides, the journey is simplified. Thus, I see retail taking the lead in credit granting and customer relationships, even driving the digital transformations occurring in payment methods, purchase journeys, and customer experiences.
