The American betting platform Polymarket opened a speculative market questioning whether Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes will be impeached in 2025.
Last week, traders on the platform bet on an 18% chance of the minister being removed by the Brazilian Senate by the end of this year, an increase of five percentage points from the previous week.
The fluctuation is a direct reflection of the house arrest order issued by Moraes against former President Jair Bolsonaro, which generated new contrary reactions from the Donald Trump White House.
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The peak of impeachment bets
The peak of favorable bets for the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes occurred on July 10, 2025, when tension between Brazil and the United States reached a new level. On that date, American President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, justifying the measure as a direct response to decisions by the Supreme Court against former President Jair Bolsonaro, many of which were signed by Moraes.
At that moment, the market reacted with a rise in bets that the Brazilian Senate would yield to international pressure and begin impeachment proceedings against the minister, causing the “yes” contract to be worth over 25 cents, the highest value recorded so far.
Since then, however, interest in this hypothesis has waned, and the value of the bet has dropped, reflecting a decrease in confidence that the United States will be able to influence the Brazilian Congress.
