FortiGuard Labs looks at how technology, economics and human behavior shape global cyber risk cyber threat predictions for 2026, the Fortinet lab states that cybercrime will continue to evolve into an organized industry, incorporating automation, specialization and artificial intelligence. But, the report highlights a turning point in this evolution in 2026. Success 5 for both attack and defense will be determined much more by efficiency than innovation: that is, how quickly intelligence can be translated into action.
Derek Manky, Global Vice President of Threat Intelligence, said speed and scale will define the next decade.The executive states that by 2027, cybercrime is expected to operate on a scale comparable to that of legitimate global industries.
Thanks to artificial intelligence, automation and a much more consolidated cybercrime supply chain, the lab predicts that intrusions will be easier and faster, analyze stolen data and manage ransom negotiations.
These changes will exponentially expand the capabilities of attackers.A ransomware group that previously managed only a few campaigns will soon be able to launch dozens of campaigns simultaneously.In addition, the time between intrusion and impact will decrease from days to minutes, making speed the determining risk factor for businesses in 2026.
The next generation of the offensive will be AI agents ''the Fortinet lab also predicts the emergence of specialized AI agents, designed to assist cybercriminal operations. While these agents do not yet operate independently, they will begin to automate and optimize key steps in the attack chain, including credential theft, sideways movement, and data monetization.
AI will accelerate this data monetization, once attackers have access to stolen databases, AI tools will instantly analyze and prioritize, determining which victims offer the highest return, generating personalized extortion messages.
The economics of this clandestine operation will also become more structured. Botnet and credential rental services will be more personalized this year. Data enrichment and automation will allow vendors to offer more targeted access packages, based on industry, geography and system profiles, replacing generic packages that currently dominate illegal markets.The clandestine market may include customer service, reputation management and automated custody.As a result of these innovations, cybercrime will accelerate its evolution towards industrialization.
The evolution of defense should be in “velocity of machine” defenders will need to respond with the same efficiency and coordination. By 2026, security operations will be much closer than FortiGuard Labs calls defense at “peed machine” - an ongoing process of intelligence, validation, and containment that reduces detection and response times from hours to minutes.
This year and beyond, it will be necessary to leverage frameworks such as Continuous Threat Exposure Management (CTEM) and MITRE ATT&CK so that advocates can quickly map active threats, identify exposures, and prioritize remediation actions based on real-time data. Identity must also become the foundation of security operations, as organizations will need to authenticate not only people, but also automated agents, AI processes, and machine-to-machine interactions.
Managing these non-human identities will be critical to preventing large-scale privilege escalation and data exposure.
Rewards program supports global community 'Well initiatives such as Operation Serengeti 2.0 of INTERPOL, supported by Fortinet and other private sector partners, demonstrate how joint intelligence, data sharing and targeted disruption can disrupt criminal infrastructure.New initiatives such as the cybercrime rewards program“Fortinet-Crime Stoppers International” will enable global communities to report cyber threats securely, helping to raise awareness and accountability.
FortiGuard Labs also foresees continued investments in prevention and education programs aimed at young people or vulnerable populations who are being lured into cybercrime.
Cybercrime will operate on a scale comparable to that of industries the Fortinet lab estimates that by 2027, cybercrime will operate on a scale comparable to that of legitimate global industries.FortiGuard Labs predicts even more automation in offensive operations through autonomous AI models, in which swarm-based agents will begin to coordinate tasks semi-autonomously and adapt to the behavior of defenders, along with increasingly sophisticated attacks on the supply chain, targeting artificial intelligence and embedded systems.
“Speed and scale will define the next decade.Companies and organizations that unify intelligence, automation and human knowledge into a single response system will be better placed to tackle what lies ahead”, said Derek Manky, Global vice president of Threat Intelligence at Fortinet.
Advocates will also evolve, leveraging predictive intelligence, automation and exposure management to contain incidents faster and anticipate adversary behavior.The next stage of cybersecurity will depend on how effectively humans and machines can operate together as adaptive systems.
The full report with the Cyber Threat Predictions 2026 is available this link and you can access it to explore detailed predictions, industry-specific insights, and strategies for building resilience in the age of industrialized cybercrime.
