The glow of Black Friday promotions often fades quickly when the bills and invoices arrive at the beginning of the year. Between impulse spending and temporary extra income, many consumers enter January already in debt — and this cascading effect puts pressure not only on families but also on the cash flow of retailers and suppliers. To give an idea, in 2024, physical retail sales grew by 17%, and e-commerce advanced by 9% compared to 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to the Cielo Expanded Retail Index.
This means that Black Friday is a powerful date for driving sales, but it can also lead many to buy on impulse and spend more than they can afford. The problem is exacerbated because the end of the year usually brings temporary extra income, such as 13th-month salaries and bonuses, giving a false sense of financial ease. In January and February, the consumer has to deal with an avalanche of non-postponable bills, which include taxes, children's school fees, among other commitments.
Indeed, the number of consumers with overdue bills grew consistently between November 2024 and March 2025. In November last year, there were 68.62 million delinquent consumers (41.51% of the adult population), rising to 69.66 million in March, equivalent to 42.01% of the adult population, according to the National Confederation of Shopkeepers (CNDL) and the Credit Protection Service (SPC Brasil).
Impacts for B2B Delinquency
The increase in post-Black Friday delinquency also impacts B2B relationships, especially between large retail chains and their suppliers. This happens because if the end consumer delays payment or defaults, the retailer may face a cash crunch and delay payments for orders placed with manufacturers and distributors.
Companies that offer their own credit or installment plans without intermediaries end up carrying the portfolio of end-customer receivables on their balance sheet, and if many of these customers do not pay, the loss is direct. In the case of sales via credit card, although the credit risk lies with the issuer, the retailer can be indirectly affected by lower liquidity and higher financial costs.
A struggling retailer will seek to extend payment terms with suppliers or even temporarily suspend payments, pushing the problem further down the chain. For suppliers, the accumulation of receivables disrupts or even interrupts the supplier company's cash flow.
A consistently necessary strategy for supplier companies is to manage risks efficiently by strengthening preventive credit analysis. This is the first line of defense against delinquency, which must be carried out rigorously even before granting payment terms and purchase limits to retailers. In the context of Black Friday, many suppliers increase inventories and offer special conditions to take advantage of high demand; however, this must be done in a selective and coordinated manner.
Another recommendation is to observe payment behavior right in the first installments or invoices after Black Friday. If the retail customer starts delaying payments as early as December or January, this raises a warning sign for the supplier to intensify monitoring.
Credit intelligence tools can be great allies in this preventive process. By using data from bureaus and sectoral indicators, suppliers can quickly identify warning signs in their retail customers, such as increased liabilities, debt concentration, or a recent history of delays.
Data-driven decisions tend to make credit granting more precise and prevent further delays, especially in a scenario where household delinquency directly pressures the cash flow of large chains. Preventive B2B credit analysis is not just a measure of prudence but a strategic resource to ensure the sustainability of commercial relationships in higher-risk periods, such as the post-Black Friday period.
Effects of Agile Collection Actions in the Post-Sale Phase
Even with robust preventive analysis, delays are inevitable. Therefore, the second line of defense is an agile and effective collection strategy immediately after Black Friday. Here, the golden rule is: do not procrastinate when faced with a delay.
Studies show that the sooner one acts, the higher the chance of collection. According to the Global B2B Credit Recovery Index (GCRI), 82% of debts with up to 10 days overdue are recovered; between 11 and 20 days, recovery drops to 70%; however, when the delay exceeds 20 days, the recovery rate tends to fall below 50%. That is, B2B debts that exceed three weeks overdue enter a critical zone where practically half are no longer recoverable. This data highlights the importance of reacting promptly based on monitoring the payment calendar to avoid delinquency peaks, triggering collection as soon as the delay occurs.
In practice, this means having a well-defined collection workflow post-Black Friday. If an invoice is due today and payment has not been made, a friendly reminder should be sent to the customer as early as tomorrow. Often, a simple reminder can resolve the issue, especially after a period of intense sales, where the buyer may have become disorganized amidst numerous payments. A preventive collection strategy involves sending payment reminders a few days before the due date and immediately after the date, since a portion of initial delays are linked to forgetfulness or minor administrative mismatches.
After 30, 60 days, the probability of non-payment grows exponentially, and the company needs to decide how long it is feasible to wait before taking legal action. In this sense, having clear credit and collection policies helps avoid emotional decisions or inconsistent treatment among customers.
Technological Advances Facilitate Credit Recovery
Handling a high volume of simultaneous collections, something common after major promotional periods, can overwhelm credit teams. Fortunately, technology is an ally in making this process more efficient and even improving success rates. According to GCRI data, today more than half (54%) of debt renegotiation agreements are closed through digital channels, with an absolute emphasis on WhatsApp, used in 45% of successful negotiations. The role of automation is also growing, with about 10% of agreements being made using AI resources.
In digital collection, there are also benefits brought by the wealth of data generated. By using computerized systems, it is possible to monitor in real-time which customers viewed the message, clicked on the payment link, or responded with a question. With this information, the collection team can manage more intelligently, identifying which cases should remain in the automated flow and which need to be escalated to a phone call.
In the end, the success of Black Friday is not measured only by sales volume, but by the companies' ability to turn this revenue into net income. Investing in preventive credit analysis, structuring a consistent collection workflow, and adopting digital monitoring tools are what separate sustainable growth from a fleeting illusion. The date can be an engine for expansion or a gateway to delinquency — the difference lies in management.
By Alessandro Holthausen, Customer Success & Relationship Manager at Global
