Small businesses are more pessimistic about the economy, study says

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more pessimistic about the Brazilian economy at the beginning of this year, reveals the fourth edition of the Omie Survey of Small Enterprises’, carried out by Omie, a management platform (ERP) in the cloud. Currently Brazil has more than 10 million active micro and small companies, with about 65% opting for Simples Nacional. This segment plays a relevant role in the Brazilian economy, both from the point of view of GDP generation and job market vacancies.

The data point to an increase in the pessimism of small companies regarding the evolution of the Brazilian economy in the short term, in view of the high interest rates and the increase in inflationary pressures in the country. However, most respondents continue with positive expectations regarding the growth of revenues and hiring in their own businesses in the next six months 84% expect an advance in the billing of their businesses in the period. This result possibly reflects a still favorable perspective for the evolution of domestic consumption, an essential component for the performance of various activities of the small business sector.

For Felipe Beraldi, economist and manager of Indicators and Economic Study of Omie, “o positive result surprises in the face of the challenging macroeconomic scenario and indications of slowing down of the SME market, as pointed out by IODE-PMEs in recent months. However, some factors can support the optimistic view of small entrepreneurs in various segments, such as the continuity of growth in real labor income and the strong performance of Commerce in recent months”.

Even with the optimism for the coming months in their own businesses, small companies no longer feel the same about the Brazilian economic environment. The constant rise in interest rates by the Central Bank and the increase in inflation reinforce the perception of a significant slowdown in GDP in 2025. As a reflection of this scenario, 51% of entrepreneurs predict a worsening in the economy in the short term 39% increase compared to the 39% recorded in the September survey. On the other hand, only 21% of respondents expect an improvement in the coming months. 

Figure 1: Evolution of the perception of owners and managers of small businesses about the domestic economic environmentRegarding the Brazilian economy, what is your expectation for the next six months?

Source: Omie Survey of Small Businesses.

Regarding the labor market, the survey brings positive expectations of small companies. The study reveals that 43% of respondents expect to open new jobs in the coming months, a percentage above the 37% observed in the survey of September/24. In addition, 29% were likely to seek people in the market if there is a need to replace the current team and 28% do not expect to perform short-term hires (down compared to 36% of the previous survey.

In addition to collecting expectations, the survey also seeks to understand the current situation of small companies. Regarding revenue, 52% reported growth in recent months, although there is a significant balance with those who indicated stagnation or retraction (48%). This movement is in line with recent data from IODE-PMEs, which recorded a modest growth of 3% in the year-by-year comparison in the accumulated of the last six months until February 2025.“The most recent index data, from December 2024, point to a weakening of the market, stagnation of the higher turnover in the sector.

As in the past year, the costs and expenses of small businesses have increased, according to 80% of participants. The consistency of responses between the last two editions is in line with the current economic scenario, marked by pressured inflation and rising expectations.

This context, combined with a heated labor market and a new real increase in the minimum wage this year, has raised labor costs for small entrepreneurs. In March 2025, the IGP-M accumulated a high of 8.6% in the last 12 months, contrasting with the fall of 4.3% recorded in the same period of 2024.

Despite the challenges related to cost pressure, small companies continue hiring, albeit in a more restrained way and focusing on the replacement of people. While 54% of companies recently made admissions, only half of this number corresponds to the creation of new vacancies. There is also a gradual increase in the share of companies that are not hiring, going from 40% in the first half of 2024 to 46% in this edition, which may signal a scenario of greater caution and strategic adjustments in the sector.

Business owners' pain

The last question of the survey was directed to understand the main pains of small entrepreneurs in the market. According to them, they are: 41% of respondents last year increased from 45% in 2025), followed by 41% of (which also grew from 41% to 45%) and 45%) and 42% of (42%).

Figure 2: What market elements hinder the growth of the company?

 Source: Omie Survey of Small Businesses. (The results in this topic reflect the percentage of choice of each answer option, having as denominator the total number of companies responding to the survey. Thus, the sum of the percentages of responses may be greater than 100%, considering that each respondent could choose up to three answer options.)

Beraldi explains that this result reinforces the domestic economic environment, marked by the increases of Selic by the Central Bank and by a still resilient labor market (with rising real incomes). 

Finally, the theme of lack of working capital’ gains relevance, with high of 30% to 36% in this edition of the study, while the weak demand of the market’ decreased from 30% to 26%. “This loss of relevance of the theme of weak demand’s the prospect of growth of revenue by owners and managers of small companies in the country, but the increased relevance of the mention of working capital shortfall’ confirms that interest rates at historically high levels and the selectivity of banks in granting credit to the final cost agents, affirms the cost. 

The Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey (PTC), released by the Central Bank in February 2025, revealed that the expectations of financial institutions indicate a further worsening in credit supply conditions in all segments.

The fourth edition of the Small Business Omie Survey’ was held with more than 460 respondents from Simples Nacional, especially decision makers (such as CEOs, directors, partners and managers), to anticipate market trends, in addition to identifying the main pains of small business owners in the country. The period of collection of responses was from 11/02 to 17/03 of 2025.