By Alessandro Holthausen, Customer Success & Relationship Manager at Global
The allure of Black Friday promotions often fades quickly when the bills and payments arrive at the start of the year. Between impulse purchases and temporary extra income, many consumers enter January already in debt — and this cascading effect puts pressure not only on families but also on the cash flow of retailers and suppliers. To give you an idea, in 2024, sales in physical retail grew by 17%, and e-commerce advanced by 9% compared to 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to the Cielo Expanded Retail Index.
This means that Black Friday is a powerful date for boosting sales, but it can also lead many to make impulse purchases and spend more than they can afford. The problem is compounded because the end of the year usually brings temporary extra income, such as the 13th-month salary and bonuses, giving a false sense of financial security. In January and February, consumers have to deal with an avalanche of unavoidable bills, including taxes, children's school fees, and other commitments.
In fact, the number of consumers with overdue accounts grew consistently between November 2024 and March 2025. Last November, there were 68.62 million defaulters (41.51% of the adult population), rising to 69.66 million in March, equivalent to 42.01% of the adult population, according to the National Confederation of Retail Leaders (CNDL) and the Credit Protection Service (SPC Brasil).
Impacts on B2B default rates
The increase in post-Black Friday defaults also impacts B2B relationships, especially between large retail chains and their suppliers. This is because if the end consumer delays or defaults on payments, the retailer may face cash flow problems and delay payments for orders placed with manufacturers and distributors.
Companies that offer their own credit or installment plans without intermediaries end up carrying the receivables portfolio of end customers on their balance sheet, and if many of these customers fail to pay, the loss is direct. In the case of sales via credit card, although the credit risk lies with the issuer, the retailer may be indirectly affected by lower liquidity and higher financial costs.
A struggling retailer will seek to extend payment terms with suppliers or even temporarily suspend payments, shifting the problem further down the supply chain. For suppliers, the accumulation of outstanding debts disrupts or even interrupts the supplier company's cash flow.
A strategy that is always necessary for supplier companies is to manage risks efficiently by strengthening preventive credit analysis. This is the first line of defense against default, which must be rigorously performed even before granting payment terms and purchase limits to retailers. In the context of Black Friday, many suppliers increase their inventory and offer special conditions to take advantage of high demand; however, this needs to be done selectively and in a coordinated manner.
Another recommendation is to monitor payment behavior right from the first installments or invoices after Black Friday. If the retail customer starts to fall behind on payments as early as December or January, this raises a red flag for the supplier to intensify monitoring.
Credit intelligence tools can be great allies in this preventative process. By using data from bureaus and industry indicators, suppliers can quickly identify warning signs in their retail clients, such as increased liabilities, debt concentration, or a recent history of late payments.
Data-driven decisions tend to make credit granting more accurate and prevent further delays, especially in a scenario where household defaults directly pressure the cash flow of large retail chains. Preventive B2B credit analyses are not just a prudent measure, but a strategic resource to ensure the sustainability of commercial relationships during higher-risk periods, such as after Black Friday.
Effects of agile collection actions in post-sales service.
Even with robust preventative analysis, delays are inevitable. Therefore, the second line of defense is a swift and effective collection strategy immediately after Black Friday. Here, the golden rule is: don't procrastinate when faced with a delay.
Studies show that the sooner you act, the greater the chance of recovery. According to the Global B2B Credit Recovery Index (GCI), 82% of debts up to 10 days overdue are recovered; between 11 and 20 days, recovery drops to 70%; however, when the delay exceeds 20 days, the recovery rate tends to fall below 50%. In other words, B2B debts that are more than three weeks overdue enter a critical zone where practically half are no longer recoverable. This data highlights the importance of reacting promptly by monitoring the payment schedule to avoid delinquency spikes, initiating collection efforts as soon as a delay occurs.
In practice, this means having a well-defined collection strategy after Black Friday. If the invoice is due today and payment hasn't been made, a friendly reminder should be sent to the customer tomorrow. Often, a simple reminder can solve the problem, especially after a period of intense sales, when the buyer may have become disorganized amidst so many payments. A preventative collection strategy is to send payment reminders a few days before the due date and immediately after, since a portion of initial delays are linked to forgetfulness or minor administrative oversights.
After 30 or 60 days, the probability of not receiving payment increases exponentially, and the company needs to decide how long it is viable to wait before taking legal action. In this sense, having clear credit and collection policies helps to avoid emotional decisions or inconsistent treatment between clients.
Technological advances facilitate debt recovery.
Dealing with a high volume of simultaneous collections, something common after long promotional periods, can overwhelm credit teams. Fortunately, technology is an ally in making this process more efficient and even improving success rates. According to IGR data, today more than half (54%) of debt renegotiation agreements are closed through digital channels, with WhatsApp standing out, used in 45% of successful negotiations. The role of automation is also growing, with about 10% of agreements being made with AI resources.
In digital billing, there are also the benefits brought by the wealth of data generated. By using computerized systems, it is possible to monitor in real time which customers viewed the message, clicked on the payment link, or responded with a question. With this information, the billing team can manage more intelligently, identifying which customers should continue in the automated flow and which need to be escalated to a phone call.
Ultimately, the success of Black Friday isn't measured solely by sales volume, but by companies' ability to transform that revenue into net income. Investing in preventative credit analysis, structuring a consistent collection strategy, and adopting digital monitoring tools is what separates sustainable growth from fleeting illusion. The date can be an engine for expansion or a gateway to default—the difference lies in management.
