Whenever online shopping is mentioned, it’s impossible to avoid discussing something that is the terror of both consumers and retailers alike: fraud. And for good reason, as data from the report “The State of Fraud and Abuse 2024” shows that losses from these online scams are projected to exceed $343 billion by 2027. However, just as criminals are becoming increasingly creative in developing criminal initiatives, companies have also been taking significant steps to ensure a safe environment for their consumers. So, can we say that 2025 will be a year when e-commerce fraud sees a reduction?
A study by BigDataCorp showed that the digital security index of Brazilian e-commerce reached over 95% at the beginning of 2024, thanks to the increased use of SSL (Secure Sockets Layer), which uses encryption to protect users’ data. Additionally, consumers themselves have become more alert and can more easily identify when a transaction is fraudulent. According to a survey by Opinion Box, 91% of users have abandoned an online purchase precisely due to suspicions of scams.
Another factor favoring fraud prevention is Artificial Intelligence. Through its combined use with data analysis and machine learning, for example, many retailers can define patterns for normal transactions and act preemptively when they detect a suspicious purchase. The technology can rely on various factors such as frequency, purchase location, most-used payment method, customer profile, etc.
Moreover, AI can profile suspicious users, blocking their access to e-commerce platforms and preventing future scams. In this case, the technology—also related to machine learning—relies on diverse information such as online behavior and profile analysis, monitoring email addresses, IPs, and phone numbers. With this data, retailers can determine the intentions of individuals, checking the possibility of identity theft, account breaches, and even delinquency history.
Due to this range of possibilities, a survey by the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) and SAS shows that 46% of anti-fraud professionals in Latin America already use AI and machine learning in their daily work. Additionally, a study by EY indicates that the technology has approximately 90% accuracy in detecting spam, malware, and network intrusions.
While there are no complete data yet on the number of e-commerce fraud cases in 2024—since we are still early in 2025—2023 saw a significant 29% drop in scam attempts on these platforms, according to the Raio-X da Fraude 2024 report. This raises hope, showing that technology has been an ally and contributes to a more optimistic outlook for the sector.
Thus, we can say that fighting fraud in the online environment is becoming increasingly effective, with technologies that deter criminal activity. Although it may seem quite challenging, the outlook for 2025 is positive, with greater confidence and security on the part of retailers. While it remains difficult to confirm whether fraud will indeed decrease this year, we are confident that industry players are updating their strategies so that online scams become increasingly rare, paving the way for an excellent customer experience on these platforms.
