InícioNewsWhat are the prospects for the supermarket retail market in 2025?

What are the prospects for the supermarket retail market in 2025?

With the beginning of a new year, expectations also rise for various sectors of the economy, especially the supermarket sector, which faces the analysis of market scenarios in all areas involving the segment.

From a legal standpoint, it is no different, as the supermarket retail sector will need to navigate a transforming environment where technological innovation and sustainability will be at the center of regulatory changes. Strategic preparation will be the key to turning challenges into opportunities.

The Tax Reform

The Tax Reform is expected to progress in 2025, with the aim of unifying taxes such as ICMS, ISS, PIS, and Cofins into a dual VAT model. For lawyer and retail specialist Daniela Correa, the supermarket sector will experience a positive impact: ‘The simplification of ancillary obligations will bring greater tax predictability. However, the transition to this new regime represents an operational challenge,’ explains Daniela.

Supermarket retail businesses will need to invest in tax management systems to ensure compliance with ancillary obligations and avoid tax liabilities. ‘This will lead to greater financial predictability, facilitating long-term planning,’ says the lawyer.

Taxation of digital operations

The increase in online sales in the supermarket sector requires greater attention to the taxation of digital transactions. According to Daniela, enforcement of ICMS on e-commerce is expected to intensify, and with the reform and the consequent unification of taxes—’for this, tax planning will be essential,’ she emphasizes.

Daniela further explains that, to tackle this challenge, supermarkets will need to adopt digital compliance and automated invoicing systems, including to deal with the harmonization of state laws that may create greater tax complexity.

Consumption taxation and social impact

Regarding consumption taxation, Daniela warns: ‘The possible tax relief on essential products may stimulate consumption and alleviate the tax burden on basic food basket items. For retail, the impact involves being prepared for quick adjustments in pricing and margin control. Tax relief could improve consumers’ perception of the sector, so this represents an opportunity for supermarket retail.’

Sustainability and Green Taxation

‘This is a real and global trend,’ warns Daniela. ‘With increasing pressure for sustainable business practices, green taxation is gaining traction. New tax incentives may benefit companies that adopt ESG (environmental, social, and governance) practices, such as waste reduction and use of renewable energy,’ adds the expert.

‘Supermarket retail may be encouraged to invest in eco-efficient infrastructure, and with global pressure for sustainable measures, there may be sanctions or additional taxation for companies that fail to meet sustainability targets,’ she concludes.

Labor relations and new hiring models

With the advancement of technology and changes in consumer behavior, such as the growth of delivery services, for example, the sector will need to adapt its labor relations.

More flexible hiring, especially in gig economy platforms, may be regulated, and there will be a need to review contracts and adapt to emerging labor standards.

Regulations on Data Protection (LGPD)

With increased enforcement by ANPD (National Data Protection Authority), compliance with the LGPD (General Data Protection Law) will become even more critical. Supermarkets that handle large volumes of sensitive data will need to strengthen their privacy policies.

‘If this does not happen, the impact will be significant, considering the financial and reputational penalties for companies that fail to comply with the legislation,’ warns Daniela.

Consumer relations

Daniela also explains that the supermarket sector is undergoing significant transformations in consumer relations, driven by technology and changes in consumer habits. One of the main innovations is the adoption of e-commerce, enabling online purchases and home delivery or in-store pickup. This not only increases accessibility but also offers personalized experiences through recommendations based on past purchases.

Another innovation is the implementation of mobile technologies, such as loyalty apps and digital payments, which facilitate interaction between consumers and supermarkets. Additionally, artificial intelligence is used to optimize inventories, predict demand, and improve the supply chain. ‘These innovations improve efficiency, reduce costs, and provide a more convenient and personalized shopping experience,’ explains Daniela.

Sustainability is also a growing focus, with supermarkets adopting eco-friendly practices such as biodegradable packaging, waste reduction, and promotion of organic products. Moreover, nutritional transparency and the availability of healthy options are increasingly valued. These innovations not only enhance the consumer experience but also contribute to a more sustainable future.

Thus, investing in compliance in consumer relations, combined with systems that ensure security in consumer interactions, is essential for the sector to keep up with the behavioral changes of its consumer base and industry trends.

For 2025, Daniela projects some expectations: ‘The year 2025 promises significant transformations for the supermarket retail sector, with a direct impact on the involved legal areas. Companies in the sector should invest in compliance, technology, and adaptation to new regulatory models to remain competitive in an ever-evolving market,’ she concludes.

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