Mexico’s e-commerce market is the second largest in Latin America, behind Brazil, and is expected to grow at an average rate of 25% per year (higher than Brazil’s 21%) until 2027, reaching US$184.2 billion. The forecast comes from the “Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets”, produced by Nuvei, a Canadian fintech specializing in payment solutions.
The Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets analyzes e-commerce in eight high-growth markets mapped by Nuvei: Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Hong Kong, Chile, India, Colombia, and the United Arab Emirates. After presenting the results for Brazil and South Africa in February, the report now highlights Mexico and Hong Kong.
Mexico
The growth of e-commerce in Mexico is expected to be led by greater integration with other countries: cross-border e-commerce is projected to grow from 21% in 2024 to 26% by 2027, outpacing Brazil and the average of the surveyed countries.
Another driver of Mexican e-commerce growth will be the advancement of electronic payment methods. The 6% of cash purchases recorded in Nuvei’s study reflects a market still lacking financial inclusion. Despite initiatives like the Interbank Electronic Payment System (SPEI-CoDi) and Mobile Money (DiMo), Mexico lags behind Brazil in this regard. In early May, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum hosted Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. They agreed on economic cooperation efforts, including the transfer of real-time payment technology.
“The e-commerce market in Mexico is rapidly expanding and modernizing, attracting major Brazilian companies,” says Daniel Moretto, Senior Vice President of Nuvei Latin America. “The per capita GDP is 30% higher than ours, and we are a few steps ahead in financial inclusion.”
Hong Kong
Hong Kong stands out among the countries surveyed by the Global Expansion Guide for High-Growth Markets for having the highest percentage of international e-commerce: 56%, with projections to reach 59% by 2027. Mexico and Brazil, despite having greater growth potential in the coming years, start from lower penetration rates: 21% and 8%, respectively.
The predominance of cross-border e-commerce, observed in Nuvei’s study, is no accident: Hong Kong is a small market (with 7.8 million inhabitants, far fewer than Mexico’s 137 million or Brazil’s 216 million) and neighbors China, the world’s largest exporter. With 92% of its GDP in the services sector, Hong Kong depends on foreign trade. Hence, it consistently ranks at the top of the world’s most open economies.
With the 24th highest per capita GDP in the world (Mexico is 96th, Brazil 104th), Hong Kong enables multinational groups from Brazil and the world to access consumers willing to pay for quality and diversity. It is also an open window to the future of retail. There, internet penetration reaches 95.6% of the population, and the mobile phone subscription rate per capita is the highest in the world: 292 for every 100 people.
“Hong Kong is a strategic market as a gateway for companies looking to expand in the region,” says Moretto, Senior Vice President of Nuvei Latin America. “Additionally, it has a diverse, high-income population that consumes a lot of premium international brands.”
