The Omie Index of Economic Performance of SMEs (IODE-SMEs) indicates that the revenue of small and medium-sized Brazilian companies (SMEs) recorded a 1.2% decrease in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same period in 2024. Despite macroeconomic challenges on the radar, the baseline scenario for the Brazilian economy does not indicate a total growth interruption. It is expected that the index will show a 1.3% expansion for the year, reinforcing the perspective that 2025 will be marked by more moderate activity, especially compared to the last three years.
Felipe Beraldi, economist and Manager of Indicators and Economic Studies at Omie, a cloud management platform (ERP), explains that, although the negative result at the beginning of the year was largely influenced by the deterioration of confidence among economic agents, expectations still point to modest market advancement of SMEs throughout 2025.
“The recent behavior of the sector reinforces the growth expectation aligned with the general projections for the Brazilian GDP — with the median of estimates currently around 2%, according to the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin. This scenario contrasts with recent years when the SME market evolved at a faster pace than the overall economy,” says the economist.
The main factor supporting this projection, according to Beraldi, is the continued increase in income of Brazilian families, driven by advances in real labor earnings in recent months. In the 12-month period leading up to March 2025, the average real labor income gain in Brazil progressed by 4.4%, remaining significantly above pre-pandemic levels — 8.1% higher than the 2019 average.
Nevertheless, inflationary pressures and high levels of the basic interest rate (Selic) are expected to continue constraining consumption and investments in the country, with repercussions on SMEs market — especially in segments more dependent on credit, such as industries, commerce, and construction.
“Although the economic environment is more challenging and requires constant monitoring, it is essential for entrepreneurs to also be aware of the impacts of the Tax Reform on their businesses. The measure is a reality for the Brazilian economy and will begin to be gradually implemented as of 2026, with significant implications for the competitiveness of various companies, including those opting for Simples Nacional,” warns Beraldi.
