The American betting platform Polymarket has opened a speculative market questioning whether Supreme Federal Court (STF) Minister Alexandre de Moraes will be impeached in 2025.
In the last week, traders on the platform bet on an 18% chance of the minister being removed by the Brazilian Senate by the end of this year, with a five-percentage-point increase compared to the previous week
The fluctuation is a direct result of the house arrest order issued by Moraes against former President Jair Bolsonaro, which sparked new opposition from Donald Trump’s White House.
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The peak of impeachment bets
The peak in bets favoring Alexandre de Moraes’ impeachment occurred on July 10, 2025, when tensions between Brazil and the United States reached a new level. On that date, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, justifying the measure as a direct response to the Supreme Federal Court’s decisions against former President Jair Bolsonaro, many of them signed by Moraes.
At that moment, the market reacted with a surge in bets that the Brazilian Senate would yield to international pressure and initiate impeachment proceedings against the minister, causing the ‘yes’ contract to reach over 25 cents, the highest value recorded so far.
Since then, however, interest in this scenario has weakened, and the bet’s value has declined, reflecting reduced confidence that the United States will succeed in influencing the Brazilian Congress.
